9-22： sharkeater 欧元

	反弹0.618（1。1488）位还没有过

	US's Snow claims G7 ministers backed his forex view 22 September 2003   DUBAI: US Treasury Secretary John Snow claimed a win yesterday in his campaign to make flexible currency rates a global standard as key industrial nations agreed trade benefits from less government involvement. A closing statement from a meeting of the Group of Seven finance ministers – the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan – said a flexible currency rate "is desirable for major countries or economic areas" in order to let markets smooth out economic ups-and downs. The groundbreaking commitment was clearly aimed at showing disapproval of countries that use pegged currency rates, or that intervene heavily in markets to affect their currency's values, in order to keep their export prices low. Snow travelled through Asia earlier this month, making the same case virtually word-for-word in a trip to Japan, China and Thailand that was seen as a bid to pressure China into letting its yuan currency trade beyond its current decade-old peg of about 8.28 yuan to the US dollar. Snow left no doubt he was satisfied by the inclusion of the language endorsing free-market forces – in keeping with the Bush administration's conservative Republican party philosophy. "I expressed my long-held view that the world trading system works best under a regime with market-based exchange rates," Snow said. "I was pleased the communique reflected this view." Currencies were the hot topic at the Dubai meeting, with fierce interest in whether a US campaign to push China into allowing its yuan currency to appreciate would prevail at the Saturday session. Later, Snow turned aside a question whether there was a risk that, if China complied, its economy might be destabilised if it caused sharp fluctuations that strained the country's enfeebled banking system. "I think it is understood banking reform, working through bad loans and infrastructure problems, need to be addressed in conjunction with moving to a system of flexible exchange rates," Snow said. At a later session with reporters, Snow was asked whether Japan – which has spent heavily this year to intervene in currency markets in order to keep the yen's value down – had any objection to call for more influence from market forces. Snow said Japan had in fact been "very supportive" and insisted, "We're not singling anybody out. . .we have a universal policy." US manufacturers have mounted a vigorous lobbying campaign claiming China manipulates its currency, a message heeded by the Bush administration with next year's presidential elections on the horizon. Snow repeated his refrain that the United States cannot be "the sole engine of world growth" and said the performance of Asian and European economies "is simply not what it could be." He said they needed to do more to introduce "fundamental structural reforms" to swiftly boost their economies and spur domestic growth in order to bolster the world economy. The US Treasury chief said he also urged other G7 countries to pitch in generously to help rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan – a topic the rich countries were to follow up on Sunday at a donors' conference aimed at Afghanistan. He promised the United States would continue to provide aid to the Palestinian Authority to make sure it can function as a government, saying this would serve the cause of peace in the troubled Middle East region where Palestinians and Israelis have been engaged in escalating violence. »PRINTABLE VERSION »SUBSCRIBE TO FREE HEADLINES »SUBSCRIBE TO ARCHIVESTUFF

	反弹0.618（1。1488）位已破

	那现在是怎么说？疯狂了

	请大家还是保持自己的独立判断。  市场的分歧还没有消除，走势和K线图的形态 明确指明了这一点。为此，不要轻易冲进去当炮灰。 在图中的建议并没有失效，完全符合现在的行情。 如果欧元不能有效上破 1。1480/1。1500的关键价位区，我敢肯定，很快转入震荡下行。 价格是有其内在 自身的波动特性，不会停留在一个固定的位子上。 既然上不去，那就是下去。 G7 中SNOW 的讲话仅从侧面表明，美国不再强调货币的政策， 无论是强势美元，还是弱势美元。 美国的货币政策，就是让市场自由调节。  尽管这含义里，带有鼓励市场走低美元的基调。但货币同样有供需平衡的不同状况所支配其汇率的高低。 美国的基本面并没有由于G7会议产生实质性改变，欧元区也同样如此。 弱势美元早已众所皆知，在市场上也早已兑现过分了而产生前期的向上修正走势。  但市场真正平静下来以后，分期消除或接近了。 我预期该如何走还是如何走。  明后天欧元如果能保持在1。1400以上收市或者有效突破1。1480/1。1500，那才说明问题呢。 在图中说明了，上下都有 800 - 1000点的买卖，实盘激动了，保证金的不能激动。有的就是钱供你赚。 没有必要在这时冒这风险。

	请问：想把英镑换成人民币什么时候比较合适？？

	sharkeater 你又错了。 你说的菱形在哪里？ 你说开盘估出欧元，也错了。

	就目前势头来看，有效上破1。1480/1。1500的关键价位区似乎指日可待。

	看看再说吧，不要匆忙下结论

	Originally posted by sharkeater at 2003-9-21 06:39 PM: 是的，你的理解是对的。  美元指数目前价位，在94。73，就在原下降通道的边缘，有效下破 94。60， 就明确返回原下降通道， 有效下破94。0，就要再次探底。   对于欧元，有效上破 1。1480， 尽管上方还有1。 ... sharkeater斑竹： 今天美圆指数跳空低开，直接破94。60（也就是美指上升趋势线的支撑位），最低到93。91，同时也破了94。0。 94。60看来已经被有效突破，只是需要验证一下，但这已经不重要。关键是破94。00意味着什么？如果验证有效，又意味什么？ 这对美圆指数后市的走向有何启示？