8-23-04 SHARKEATER 美元指数（8/30更新，p8)

发表于 2004-8-25 17:18


	EUR/USD - the single currency actually fell beyond the ideal 1.2100 target; it has been to 1.2055 but shows scant evidence of reversing trend and may make another downmove to 1.2025/00 area. The very short-term outlook remains the same however -- expect an "oversold" reaction from those lower levels, and the currency pair should rise back to 1.2200 (roughly 40 percent) at least later in the week. We still expect to see the currency pair make a new basing action thereafter. However, the recent sell-off has damaged the positive short-term view, and so would require fine-tuning -- we review the general premise once we get the desired support and subsequent upmove to 1.2200. Recommendations: Bought EUR at 1.2078. Move stop-loss from 1.1980 to 1.1960. Keep profit target at 1.2500. Buy EUR at 1.2030. Stop-loss: 1.1960. Profit target: 1.2500.

发表于 2004-8-25 17:45


	Originally posted by fx16888 at 2004-8-25 05:18 PM: EUR/USD - the single currency actually fell beyond the ideal 1.2100 target; it has been to 1.2055 but shows scant evidence of reversing trend and may make another downmove to 1.2025/00 area. ...

发表于 2004-8-25 17:52


	Originally posted by fx16888 at 2004-8-25 05:18 PM: EUR/USD - the single currency actually fell beyond the ideal 1.2100 target; it has been to 1.2055 but shows scant evidence of reversing trend and may make another downmove to 1.2025/00 area. ... 1.25!?中長線嗎？

发表于 2004-8-25 21:51

发表于 2004-8-25 22:55


	saxobank 的观点，过于拘谨于某一种走势。这是在上面天图中提及的四个主要的可能性之一，即 B 浪的反弹没有完毕，存在着一波第三阶段的上行走势。第一阶段可以看作是从1。1778 —— 1。2461，（运行了将近48个交易日），至于，第二阶段，通常比较复杂，运行时间也不应该太短，看作是 1。2461 —— 1。1968 波段，幅度上满足了，但是，在运行时间上（仅仅8个交易日），就不行了。为此，至少现在，假定后市存在另一波上行，仍然可以看作是在第二阶段中运行，再增加一个反复也不意外。可以说，这位资格很深的分析师，缺乏复杂的思维推理，也没有认真考量时间是汇市走势中，比价位更重要的因素，江恩的交易法则，就指出了这一点。更可能的是，他并没有对造成目前震荡势态的根本因素和原因，作一个充分的归纳。为此，上升时，过于乐观，下跌时，过于悲观。通病！ [ Last edited by sharkeater on 2004-8-25 at 02:56 AM ]

发表于 2004-8-25 23:02

发表于 2004-8-25 23:03


	不过，我并不是不赞同从这网站中的这位分析师的近中期观点。而是认为，这可能存在，但不确定，只能作为一个考量。但是，他把1。1950附近看作是basing，如果是指波段级别，阶段性的启动底部，是可以，如果是看作为中期底部，结论太早了，也太不成熟了。

发表于 2004-8-25 23:04

发表于 2004-8-25 23:05


	Originally posted by rogerhu at 2004-8-25 03:02 AM: 那家伙往往是死抱一种观点，而真的到死为止。客观上说，这位首席，还是一个不错的分析师。不过，处于的层次不是很高。

发表于 2004-8-25 23:07

来自saxobank 的建议是英文的