2004年第一季度美元的展望 ---- 趋势和风险

	SMA ---- 简单加和平均移动， 除此以外，还有加权平均移动， 指数平均移动，。。。

	版主你对美元对日元怎么看

	Originally posted by sharkeater at 2004-1-2 23:14: SMA ---- 简单加和平均移动， 除此以外，还有加权平均移动， 指数平均移动，。。。 谢鲨版指正, 修正如下: EURUSD: 技术上在下一波上涨前需要一个回调 欧元今年夏天开始的这波涨势以热火朝天的步调不断将EURUSD推向新高. 当欧元迫近1.2600的心理阻力,我们在今年第一季度预测的目标, 1.1935和1.25已成记忆. 此次欧元上行无论在上涨的步调和达到的高度上都令人瞩目, 可是当市场情绪和对长期上涨动力的分析都达到可怕的极端时, 上涨正接近顶部. 需要一个相当幅度的回调是合情合理的. 我们预期2004年上半年市场的动荡将比以往任何时候要强. 长期技术分析显示2004年头几个月会有某种回调波发生. 最初的回调目标是前期突破的阻力位/10天简单加和平均移动 , 在1.1935/1.1900, 接着是前期阻力转化为支撑的1.1750区域. 我们也不排除在接下来的几个月里发生深度回调至40周均线的可能. 从如此过度上涨启动的回调有可能达到很大的幅度. 但是总体上,只要对欧元的长期需求持稳, 欧元长期上涨趋势不变.

	非常感谢

	Originally posted by clas168 at 2004-1-2 06:12 AM: 谢鲨版指正, 修正如下: EURUSD: 技术上在下一波上涨前需要一个回调 欧元今年夏天开始的这波涨势以热火朝天的步调不断将EURUSD推向新高. 当欧元迫近1.2600的心理阻力,我们在今年第一季度预测的目标, 1.1 ... 谈不上指正， 你翻译得很好。 谢谢！ 如果有进一步值得改进的地方，就是直译的痕迹还比较重，尽量意译，用中文的思维和习惯表达。 部分夸张的形容词可以转化。

	Originally posted by sharkeater at 2004-1-2 11:09 PM: 目标价位到了，就应该减仓，是否出来，应该有你把握，把止赚提高，随时平仓。 谢谢您了～～老师～～！！以后还请多多～～指导～！:hoen:

	USDJPY expected to slide to 105 (technicals call for a move to 100) 美元/日元 有望下滑到105 （技术上指引着向100运行） The comments following the G7 meeting this past September is a good reflection of the direction that the Bush administration wants to guide the USD against Asian currencies such as the Yen and Renminbi. Back in September, Treasury Secretary Snow said that they would like to see "more flexibility in exchange rates…for major countries." In 2003, the BoJ spent a record Y20trillion in an attempt to prevent the JPY from appreciating against the USD. However, judging from this year's intervention activities and the market's reaction, their efforts have been primarily geared towards slowing the eventual decline in USDJPY. 去年9月G7会议呼吁实行市场决定的自由浮动汇率制，然而随后美国财长SNOW的论调却是反映了美国布什政府的倾向 ---- 要求美元对亚洲货币，日元和人民币的贬值。 在2003年，日银动用了创纪录的20万亿日元对日元兑美元升值进行的干预。 但是，从去年的干预情况和市场的反响，推断干预的努力侧重于减缓升值的节奏（而不是改变趋势）。 For 2004, the BoJ/MoF has already announced its plans to increase their "intervention war chest." The current supplementary budget is approximately Y79trillion. Subject to parliamentary approval, the finance ministry plans on raising the ceiling by Y82bln - Y21trln for this fiscal year (ending March) and Y61trln for the next fiscal year. This means that from now until the end of the next fiscal year, the Bank of Japan will have over Y160trln to spend on interventions. This suggests that the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan have no intentions of curbing their intervention activities in 2004. 2004年，日银和财务省已经宣布了增加干预账户上的资金。 目前的预算大约79万亿日元，如果国会批准，财务省计划在三月结束的本财政年度增加 820亿 到 21万亿日元并且为下年度增加61万亿日元资金用于干预。 这意味着从现在到下一个财年底，日银将有超过 160万亿日元的资金用于干预。 同时也意味着财务省和日银根本没有打算在2004年停止干预市场。 However, despite intervention, the strength of Japanese growth in 2003 has certainly taken the market by surprise. After 10 years of stagnation, the Japanese economy has finally turned around. Improving Japanese fundamentals and a rising stock market is drawing foreign investors and fund managers, who have traditionally been underexposed to Japanese equities to adjust their portfolios. We expect this trend to continue as businesses predict increased spending in 2004. As a result, USDJPY is expected to grind lower towards 105. However, the persistence of Japanese intervention will make for a bumpy ride down to 105. 尽管不停的干预，然而，市场对日本在2003年强劲的经济增长感到意外。 在停顿了10年以后，日本的经济正在转好。改进的基本面和上涨的股市吸引了外国投资和各类基金的经理们， 后者正在调整投资板块以增加持有日本的资产的份额。由于预期日本商业开支将在2004年增加，我们期待着这一趋势将继续发展。 由此，导致美元/日元将向105运行。 然而，持之不懈的干预将使得通往105的道路，坎坷不平。 （真是有趣的表述） The long/medium term technical outlook for USDJPY has turned decidedly bearish after September's collapse below the 115.00 widely watched weekly/monthly head and shoulders neckline. The measured objective of the pattern, or the length of the distance from the head to the neckline, is roughly 2000 pips, which puts the downside projection at the 95.00 level. Overly aggressive objectives, however have a tendency of disappointing (as the yen did in 1999) and, as such, we see the psychologically significant 100.00 level as a more realistic downside target. The move lower could prove to be grind though as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1995-1998 bull wave at 105.50 should at a minimum inspire some weak hand short covering. Should the pair rally off the support zone we see scope for a move back up to 110.00 or even the 113.50 G-7 weekend gap but no higher than the 115.00 neckline/base. 在去年9月份，突破周图和月图上头肩顶形态的颈线115以后，美元/日元中长期走势看跌。形态上的量度大约2000点，也就是突破115后，目标价位区域在95。 然而，过于高看的目标通常难以到达（如同1999年美元/日元的走势和目标价位），为此，我们把心理价位100附近看作是更现实的目标价位区域。 下行的这一目标应该可以达到（这里，作者可能把GRAND 误写成 GRIND), 尽管，后市自95年（大约78。0附近）到98年（147。77）上涨波的61。8%回吐位105。50前，会导致部分做空（美元/日元）部位离场。 如果，这货币对从这里起步上行，预计可以到达110 甚至113。50，但是将受阻于115。00颈线价位。