12 - 5 - 03 SHARKEATER 欧元 III

	担心的是下周美元指数期货不知是哪天结算，

	Originally posted by liuwenren at 2003-12-6 01:58: 担心的是下周美元指数期货不知是哪天结算， 好像是21日，听朋友说的。不准确

	Originally posted by t-cat at 2003-12-6 02:01: 好像是21日，听朋友说的。不准确 很谢！那就好，港台又说是下周。

	Sell US equities, buy the US dollar! 卖美股，买美元 My position for the next month or so is to liquidate US equities, and to go long on the US dollar and bonds. 我个人立场是在下月清理美股，转持有美元和债券 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Short term, commodities including gold, equities and the Euro seem to be somewhat overbought, while the US dollar and bonds are becoming oversold. Therefore, my bet for the next month or so is to liquidate US equities, and to go long on the US dollar and bonds. 短期，包括黄金、股票和欧元等投资工具似乎超买，同时美元和债券超卖。因此我赌下月清美股、持美元及债券。 What worries me most at present is that even I, a skeptic, can't find any good reason why stock markets around the world would decline significantly. 大意：我最疑惑和担心的是不能找到合适的理由解释全球股市下跌。 That's not to say there aren't a lot of issues that concern me and which I shall discuss below. But if central bankers around the world are prepared to print money and to flood the system with unlimited liquidity at the first sign of weakness in the asset markets, then it is difficult to make a very bearish case for either US real estate or US equities in dollar terms. 大意：若全世界的央行增加货币供应量，对美国地产和股票的冲击。 We know Mr. Bush wants to be re-elected at any cost, and that therefore, over the next 12 months, he and his lackeys at the Fed and the Treasury will only take economic policy measures that are designed to keep the American public happy with 'circus and pane'. This economic policy was practiced for centuries by the Roman emperors and was designed to keep the lower classes of society in good spirits and obedient.................. 摘錄自.....http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/31849.html 大意：布什想连任，因此未来12个月会努力使经济良性循环。 [ Last edited by 蜀山劍俠 on 2003-12-6 at 01:36 AM ] [ Last edited by t-cat on 2003-12-6 at 02:13 AM ]

	成交量从0：40开始，下楼梯式的急剧萎缩。

	Originally posted by liuwenren at 2003-12-6 02:09: 成交量从0：40开始，下楼梯式的急剧萎缩。 拿大山的分析就绝对没错了。 可以安心睡觉了，感谢大山。要不还不知道该怎么办呢

	最关键的是受盘价! 要是受在1.2100以上! 那下周欧元的涨的机会很大啊!我们下周看吧!

	欧元仍然处于强势当中，多的不说就说今天冲上新高后没有昨天那样的连续急跌， 仍然在1。2140/50一线持稳，盘中的抛盘力量不足，且周末市场比较接受持非美 渡过，建议继续持有欧元。

	Originally posted by 大山 at 2003-12-6 02:16: 最关键的是受盘价! 要是受在1.2100以上! 那下周欧元的涨的机会很大啊!我们下周看吧! FXCM 新闻中说是在1。2092，很多交易员设置了什么（中文我都搞不清）

	欧元的急升始于美国对中国纺织品的制裁，关注下周温总访美， 一个贸易保护主义是否继续影响美元，二个台海局势美方态度的确定，这两个 主要议题得以顺利解决是美元反弹的开始。