十二月份欧元效应

	Euro`s December Effect by Ashraf Laidi As the euro hits all time highs against the dollar, the pattern of euro strength in December once again repeats itself. In each of the 5-years of the single currency, December has witnessed a period of strengthening. Although each of those phases of strengthening carried its own distinct explanation, the bottom line remains that the euro is characterized by seasonal strengthening in December. December 1999 After having tumbled 15% from its opening, the euro stabilized at parity before pushing up by more than 2 cents in the second week of December on a combination of surprising strong unemployment report and IFO sentiment survey from Germany. But the overriding factor was the leaking of news that Germany would phase out its hefty capital gains tax, prompting markets to buy euros on the hope that German firms would finally be able to unload their shareholdings in inefficient operations and invest the proceeds in more profitable lines of business. December 2000 The euro抯 strengthening emerged a few months after the ECB mounted a bout of euro supporting interventions, with some collaboration from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and bank of England. The concerted central bank action along with improved economic data from Germany prompted encouraged speculators to open new long EUR/USD positions in futures markets, fuelling net longs positions to 26,380 contracts in December 26 from 5,908 contracts in November 21. December 2001 December 2001 saw the tamest of euro rallies in the life of the currency primarily due to the prevailing cautiousness by fund and asset managers ahead of the euros?new role as a physical currency in January 2002. In fall 2001, the media had circulated several worst-case scenarios involving the distribution of the new currency, its availability to consumers and the ease of carrying out transactions in both urban and rural regions. December 2002 Last December抯 euro rise was the most convincing one as it arose during escalating risk-aversness ahead of an inevitable war in Iraq, prompting the dollar to multi-year lows and fuelling gold to 5-year highs. Today, the case for euro strengthening becomes all the more convincing--regardless of whether it is December or not. The dollar抯 gloom seems to be appropriately highlighted by the currency抯 failure to respond to ever strengthening economic data from the US. But one oft-overlooked development is the ever-improving data from the Eurozone, UK and Japan. Evidence of broad-based recoveries in these regions will only be accentuated from this week抯 Purchasing Manager抯 Indices reports on services and manufacturing. As the euro extends its ascendance past the $1.20 level, the issue of European exporters?strain becomes inevitable. Yet, It remains highly unlikely that the European Central bank would intervene at this point to stem the current appreciation in its currency. Intervention very much depends on the rate of the euro抯 acceleration rather than on the absolute level. The ECB did say in October that the $1.20-1.22 marks the maximum range of its tolerance level. Having said, should the Eurozone growth register little or no improvement from its current quarterly 0.3% rate, its tolerance level could remain around $1.22 and could lead European officials to talk down the euro. We expect the euro to peak about the time the US recovery improves to the extent of producing sufficient jobs to prompt the Fed to raise rates. As long as the Federal Reserve continues to signal that interest rates will remain low, the dollar will lose favor against the other high yielding currencies such as euro, sterling, Aussie and Canadian dollar. - December 1, 2003

	鲨版,看不懂呀

	大意是： 5年来，每到12月欧都走强，并列举的5年内的情况及原因什么的。 并说，如果美联储如果不加息，相对高收益货币来说，美元将失去吸引力 [ Last edited by hehe121 on 2003-12-2 at 09:47 AM ]

	谢谢鲨版。

	版主您辛苦了，谢谢！

	Originally posted by raner at 2003-12-2 07:19 PM: 新的图标很适合您！ 折腾了半天，图标总算是弄上来了，可鲨兄却上不了论坛了，这下可好，本末倒置！