 | |  | | 我好奇的是,究竟怎样的计划才能一劳永逸的解决债务问题,满足市场的期望
wildfire 发表于 2011-10-21 13:10
我也好奇,给你看看
1) What to Do with Greece
Given that the latest problems stem from the possibility of a Greek default, it is the number one priority for the EU. Based upon their current fiscal finances, it will be impossible for Greece to meet their near and medium term financing obligations. As a result, a haircut needs to be imposed on bond holders, which would reduce the amount of money that they would receive in return. Back in July, a haircut of 21 percent was agreed upon but according to EZ finance ministers Greek bondholders may have to settle for a cut between 50 and 60 percent. A smaller haircut will be short term positive for banks but long term negative for risk because it would still leave Greece vulnerable to missing future debt payments. A deeper haircut on the other hand will mean greater upfront losses for banks which could hurt equities but will be a more sustainable solution to the sovereign debt crisis in the long run. If the troika decides to release the sixth tranche of aid to Greece, it would also lend support to the euro.
2 ) How to Handle the Losses that Banks will Incur
Larger haircuts mean further losses for banks that are already suffering from unwillingness by investors to provide short term funding. To boost investor confidence, the EU may force banks to increase their core capital ratio from 5 to 9 percent within the next six months. Banks that are unable to reach the capital requirement could be forced to accept government capital, which effectively nationalizes the banks. In response, banks have announced plans to sell assets and reduce lending which would help cut their need for recapitalization. Unfortunately that may not be enough to attract investors in the private sector. A strong recapitalization plan is needed to stabilize investor confidence. The number floated being floated around is approximately $100 billion. Anything short of that will be negative for the euro. Banks will most likely be asked to find ways to recapitalize themselves through private capital first, which could be a challenge because private investments are hard to come by in this type of market environment.
3) How to Protect the Rest of the Region from Contagion
The third issue that the EU needs to address is how to protect the rest of the region from contagion. One way would be to increase the size of the EFSF but given the amount of time it took to boost the fund to EUR400 billion, expanding it to 2 trillion euros would be an even greater challenge. One way to skirt around the political, legal and financial difficulties of increasing the EFSF outright would be to lever the EFSF by guaranteeing initial losses up to 20 percent of the face value on the loans. This is a plan that is supported by many in the region including the Germans. The larger the first loss insurance, the more positive it will be for the euro. The French want to give the EFSF a credit line from the ECB but opposition from the central bank and the German government makes the chance of this happening slim. After accounting for the current commitments, the EFSF only has about EUR 270 billion left for leverage, which is just enough to cover 20 percent of the gross funding needs for Italy, Spain and Belgium. |  |  |  |  |
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