Dow 关于从一个牛市到熊市六个阶段的论述

	现在我认为是牛二期的尾声, 当价格突破1.1110的时候,会进入牛三期.

	Originally posted by zargrant at 2003-8-4 12:25 PM: 我根本不懂的, 尽力对付了, 大家也对付着看看吧, 有什么错误楼主请指出, 谢谢! 已经很不错了，比我翻得好多了。先替鲨兄谢你吧。

	到底是"从牛市到熊市六个阶段" 还是"从熊市到牛市"啊？我都搞晕了。h:

	这是个理解上的问题, 我也很晕-----bull through bear  字面上是"从熊市而来的牛市"吧? 反正谈的是牛熊演变, 无所谓先后.

	牛熊是循环往复,没有所谓先后

	原来是这样啊。。。谢谢两位！

	非常感谢， 楼上各位的翻译和解释

	The first Bear Market phase is marked by clear and widespread technical deterioration, even while almost everybody is still feeling extremely bullish. But when everyone who ever is going to buy has already bought, there is only one direction for prices to go --- down.  When buying power is used up, there is insufficient demand to absorb the accelarating distribution of stocks by the smart money at current prices, so prices have to move lower. An ever increasing number of stocks already have stalled out and formed potentially bearish chart patterns.  But even as stocks break cretical chart support levels, this clear bearish technical evidence is widely ignored by the uninformed masses.  After all, fundamental business conditions are still rosy, and "buy the dips" is still the advice of the brokers and the dealers and their paid spokesmen in the media.  The public hopes and believes that the "conventional wisdom" of all the highly  compensated Wall Street analysts, strategists and economists is right.  Besides, the public has been told that they bought for the long term, and over the long term stock prices always go up.  So, stock price declines are met with general disbelief.  The public would buy more, if only they were not already fully margined.  But they are.  So they can't. 附注： fully  margined  ----  仓位满了， （没有钱再从事交易了）   distribution      ----   卖出 to be continued [ Last edited by qling on 2003-8-4 at 10:58 PM ]

	好! 非常高兴有地方让我锻炼...我明天早晨再翻译.

	Originally posted by sharkeater at 2003-8-4 22:54: The first Bear Market phase is marked by clear and widespread technical deterioration, even while almost everybody is still feeling extremely bullish. But when everyone who ever is going to buy has ... 参考译文：     即使在人人都到市场气氛“牛气冲天”的时候，熊市的初始阶段就已经开始酝酿了，在图形上也已经显示出了很多明确的技术征候。然而，一旦打算购买的人们都已然进场，汇率却开始只向一个方向前进----向下。当多方力量出尽，即在当前价位，再也没有可用资金作为购入作多的需求时，汇价就只能向下了。一度上涨的股金开始失去上冲势头，构成了熊市的雏形。但是，即使汇价在跌破关键支撑位后，显示熊市已经开始的明确技术指标，却仍为众多无知的大众熟视无睹。毕竟，过热的市场仍有余温尚存，更何况，“逢低买入”，乃是众多经纪人、交易员和媒体的言论的共识。公众寄希望并相信那些华尔街的分析师、经济战略研究员和经济师达成的“共识”不会有错。甚至于，公众被铺天盖地的言论打动后，仍自信地认为：自己投入的资金，从长远来看，一定会升值。因而，汇价在下跌，人们却仍不为所动。公众甚至认为，只要尚未满仓，就会不遗余力地坚持买下去。但是，只要他们是这样做的，就很难再解套了。 （水平有限，仅供参考）