 | |  | | Charles H. Dow ???ù???÷·????????????í?????ì?ù???????????????????????????????????????????ù???×??????·??????????í???????ù???????×????????????????????????·??ú???????é???????¨???????????? ???±?????????ì?é??????×????? ×÷????????×???°??ú×????????á????
???????????? ??×?Robert W. Colby, CMT ?? ?°The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators" 2nd, Ed. McGraw - Hill, pp226 - 228, 2003, ISBN0-07-012057-9, ?????ò?????????ó?? ?????±????·????? ??????°????????????????¤????????
THERE ARE SIX PHASES OF THE FULL BULL THROUGH BEAR CYCLE:
SKEPTICISM,
GROWING RECOGNITION,
ENTHUSIASM,
DISBELIEF,
SHOCK AND FEAR, AND
DISGUST
In a major Bull Market, the first phase is accumulation of stocks at bargain prices by the "smart money" (the most knowledgeable and experienced investors). Meanwhile, the mass mood toward the stock market ranges from disgust to general skepticism. Stocks are depressed, and may have been for a long time. Still, some investors know that the cycle always turns up, even while fundamental business conditions still appear grim. The smart money begins to bid for out-of-favor stocks, which are selling at temptingly low bargain prices. Transactional volume, which has been low, starts to improve on rallies reflecting the entrance into the market by these forward-looking, patient investors.
The second Bull phase is known as the mark-up phase. Stock prices rise on increasing transactioanl volume. There is growing recognition that fundamental business conditions will improve. Stocks move up big. It is a very rewarding time to be in the market.
The third Bull phase is marked by popular enthusiasm and speculation. Sentiment indicators are near record levels. Fundamentals now appear extremely positive. There even may be widespread talk of a "new era" of rapid economic growth and never-ending prosperity. Stories of speculations making millions in the market flood the media. Everybody is optimistic and is buying, so transactional volume is extremely heavy. Late in this third phase , however, volume starts to diminish on rallies, as greedy buyers shoot their wads and become fully invested, usually on margin. Also, the smart money has reminded itself that "no tree grows to the sky" and all good things must eventually come to an end. Consequently, those knowledgeable in vestors, who bought early at wholesale prices, stop buying. Moreover, they begin the distribution phase, parceling out their stocks at retail prices. Smart selling intensifies as the greedy but unsophisticated mob snaps up overvalued stocks at absurdly high prices. Late inthis game , tell-tale bearish technical cracks start toappear under the "obviously" bullish surface. Tchnical divergences in stocks and groups are caused by irrational buying of the wrong stocks by unsophisticatd players while the smart money liquidates the best stocks. Stocks churn and make little net progress.
TO BE CONTINUED
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发表于 2003-8-4 08:42
发表于 2003-8-4 10:30
