Dow 关于从一个牛市到熊市六个阶段的论述

	Charles H. Dow 是所谓西方推崇的道氏理论的奠基人，他的关于一个市场从牛市到熊市的全过程的六个阶段的划分，对我们理解市场所处于的阶段和市场的行为，可能将要发生什么事情，有一定的参考价值。 同时也好用来检查和对照自己， 作为一面镜子，帮助自己逐步提高。 全文是英文， 摘自Robert W. Colby, CMT 的 “The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators" 2nd, Ed. McGraw - Hill, pp226 - 228, 2003, ISBN0-07-012057-9, 我先打出来，以后， 有空时逐段翻译。 那位能帮忙的，在下就感激不尽了。   THERE ARE SIX PHASES OF THE FULL BULL THROUGH BEAR CYCLE:     SKEPTICISM,     GROWING RECOGNITION,     ENTHUSIASM,     DISBELIEF,     SHOCK AND FEAR, AND     DISGUST    In a major Bull Market, the first phase is accumulation of stocks at bargain prices by the "smart money" (the most knowledgeable and experienced investors).  Meanwhile, the mass mood toward the stock market ranges from disgust to general skepticism.  Stocks are depressed, and may have been for a long time. Still, some investors know that the cycle always turns up, even while fundamental business conditions still appear grim.  The smart money begins to bid for out-of-favor stocks,  which are selling at temptingly low bargain prices.  Transactional volume, which has been low, starts to improve on rallies reflecting the entrance into the market by these forward-looking, patient investors. The second Bull phase is known as the mark-up phase.  Stock prices rise on increasing transactioanl volume.  There is growing recognition that fundamental business conditions will improve.  Stocks move up big. It is a very rewarding time to be in the market.   The third Bull phase is marked by popular enthusiasm and speculation.  Sentiment indicators are near record levels.  Fundamentals now appear extremely positive.  There even may be widespread talk of a "new era" of rapid economic growth and never-ending prosperity.  Stories of speculations making millions in the market flood the media.  Everybody is optimistic and is buying, so transactional volume is extremely heavy.  Late in this third phase , however, volume starts to diminish on rallies, as greedy buyers shoot their wads and become fully invested, usually on margin.  Also, the smart money has reminded itself that "no tree grows to the sky" and all good things must eventually come to an end.  Consequently, those knowledgeable in vestors, who  bought  early at wholesale prices, stop buying.  Moreover, they begin the distribution phase, parceling out their stocks at retail prices.  Smart selling intensifies as the greedy but unsophisticated mob snaps up overvalued stocks at absurdly high prices.  Late inthis game , tell-tale bearish technical cracks start toappear under the "obviously" bullish surface.  Tchnical divergences in stocks and groups are caused by irrational buying of the wrong stocks by unsophisticatd players while the smart money liquidates the best stocks.  Stocks churn and make little net progress.   TO BE CONTINUED [ Last edited by qling on 2003-8-4 at 12:18 PM ]

	现在看,是不是大机构出货的序幕已经拉开了?!

	我来试试翻译,权当锻炼了

	我上周说了, 美元即将进入牛三期.

	翻一下,谢谢

	狂奔的疯牛？ 快死的疯牛症?

	这里是熊市转化到牛市的周期的六个阶段：     怀疑     增加认识     狂热     不相信     震撼和恐惧     厌恶 在一个成熟的牛市中，第一阶段表现为“聪明的资金”的交易筹码开始集中（聪明的资金指最有见识的、最有经验的投资者）。在这段时间里，针对交易市场的主流情绪各异，从厌恶到一般性的怀疑。市场很疲弱，而且可能持续了很长一段时间。但一些投资者仍然相信市场总会周期性地回暖，即使当时的基本面仍然严峻。“聪明资金”开始投资被市场遗忘的交易品种，这些品种暂时处在低价位。而前期一直低迷的成交量，也开始放大、堆积，反映着那些有远见的、耐心的投资者正在进入市场。 牛市的第二个阶段被认为是一个标志性的上升阶段。股票价格上升，并伴随着成交量的放大。市场逐渐认识到基本面将好转。股票显著上扬，这时进入市场会获得高回报。 普遍性的狂热和投机标志着牛市的第三阶段的到来。市场的情绪指数接近了记录水平。基本面看上去极度乐观，甚至有可能广为流传着关于经济高速增长的“新时期”和永无止尽的繁荣的言论。关于投机产生百万富翁的故事在媒体上泛滥。每个人都很乐观并且在买入，所以成交量极大。然而，在第三阶段的后期，正当贪心的买家如他们所愿地变成满仓，通常是极度地满仓时，成交量开始萎缩了。而且，“聪明资金”已经提醒自己：“没有一棵树能长到天上”，而且所有的好事情都会有一个终点。结果，在早些时间以“批发价”买入股票的那些有见地的投资者停止了继续购买。并且，他们开始进入了“派发”阶段，小批小批地以“零售价”卖出。 这种聪明的出售很红火，当那些贪婪而单纯的狂热者们猛烈地将被高估的股票继续推高到一个荒谬的价格时。在这场游戏的尾声，暗示着转熊的技术指标开始在“显然”很牛的表面下撕开裂缝。由于单纯的玩家无理性地购买错误的股票而与此同时“聪明资金”却清算最好的股票，股市的技术指标产生分歧，股票走势出现分化。整个市场震荡而进行着收网的过程。

	我根本不懂的, 尽力对付了, 大家也对付着看看吧, 有什么错误楼主请指出, 谢谢!

	牛三期是牛二期的延续:市场对看多某种货币极为乐观, 买家蜂拥抢购,使的价格被一步步的推高, 技术指标已经出现衰竭,却似乎仍然无法阻挡价格的提升. 到达一定高度后,由于极度缺乏买盘承接,使价格摇摇欲坠, 出现幅度调整后, 静悄悄地进入了熊一期.

	那现在美圆是牛三期的开始, 还是牛三期的尾声? 牛三期的时间会多长?