 | |  | | - EUR/USD rallied strongly from the 1.1589 New York low and has been to as high as 1.1740. There should be another upmove towards the 1.1760 target and and may extend gains to 1.1780 - 1.1800. A recovery beyond the 50% marker would be very significant and deserves respect, as it may be laying the groundwork for a new major advance.
- Elliott wave fans may correctly speculate that all the activity since the 1.1930 top of May 27 to the low which may have seen at 1.1589, may all be part and parcel of a humongous +irregular correction+ -- one that has a very long 5th wave as its tail. There is a very good chance that the correction was over at 1.1589 yesterday -- a new upcycle should not be far behind. That's why we still expect the uptrend to continue, and the unit should have another go at 1.1930 resistance next week. Once that is done, further rally beyond the 1.1930 high will leave no one in doubt that a new rally is on. The next EUR/USD upcycle has 1.21 - 1.22 minimum targets -- may even go to 1.2500.
- GBP/USD stabilized at just under 1.6700, and has alrady regained almost 50 per cent of its losses in recent days. The downside correction is probably over - a new upmove takes shape, given legitimacy by break of 1.6800 swing level. The recent sell-off should not detract from the bigger picture -- the uptrend should resume from here, and we would watch out for a subsequent break of the 1.6900 top. That breach will reconfirm the upmove -- the main upside focus remains at 1.7000 as intermediate destination for this currency pair -- a target that already kicked in. Further out, we see a robust test of the 1.7370 top which was made in 1998.
- USD/JPY peaked at 119.10 and has gone down to 118.03 so far. The unit should continue to fall, the next support expected at 117.75. We still expect the unit to turn even lower next week. The next break of support, now at 117.20, should bring in 116.20 once again further out. We still believe that a fall to 115.00 is still in the pipeline in the slightlly longer-term. USD/CAD probably peaked at 1.3550 and the downtrend may have resumed. The short-term outlook remains unchanged by the rally to 1.3550 -- further downtrend to 1.30 should follow thereafter. USD/CHF extended gains all the way to 1.3370 and reversed trend thereafter. The unit has already been to as low as 1,3120 and should be getting set for another series of instructions. Nonetheless, we still see that the downside should reassert soon and would thereafter fall to the 1.2780 base next time around. Longer-term, the 1.25 - 1.24 targets should come into focus again. |  |  |  |  |
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发表于 2003-6-20 20:06
楼主
