欧元

	我觉得欧元在1.1610有阻 你们觉得呢？

	地球人都知道。问题在于1.1600-1.1630区域能否有效突破。

	- Look for GBP/USD bottom near 1.6550; USD/JPY should retest 117.20 baseline FX Snapshots:   (June 25, 2003,  European Open 0245 EST,  0845 CET ) -   EUR/USD  recovery stayed below the 1.1600 level and has been to 1.1480 since then. The pair is still suffering from the effects of lost 1.1600 support. We may see another bounce from the 1.1480 base, but until the Fed resolves the debate over 25 basis point vs. 50 basis point cut, the upmove may be premature. We are still waiting for more positive input, like a rally above 1.1600; better if it takes out 1.1659. Until then, we will remain skeptical of any rally and make allowances for further declines to 1.1450 ahead of the FOMC announcement later in the day. The idea is this: a 25-bp cut may force the currency to the 1.1450 area before the unit finds its legs. A 50 bp cut, on the other hand, will make the unit soar right after the news. Whatever is the outcome, we still believe that the EUR/USD uptrend is not over yet, and we are still looking for a subsequent move to 1.21 - 1.22 then to 1.25 further out once this correction is over. -     GBP/USD  failed the test of the 1.6700 designated resistance.   The unit fell to just under 1.6600 but has boucne back some.  The  1.6700 resistance will continue to act as gateway for further upside progress -  a succesful attack at the level may lay the groundwork for a new upcylce. Conversely, failure of another 1.6700 test suggest futher downside scope to 1.6550. At this point, we can't say which view one will prevail. Nonetheless, we are still convinced that the GBP/USD bull phase may not be over yet.  If there is still some scope to the downside, then there is no urgency to go long at this time, and we would rather wait for better and lower levels to make another foray into the long side of the currency, looking still for 1.7000 then 1.7370 further out.      USD/JPY  has bounce back to just under 118.07 so far and looks to be holding up. There is no change to the negative short-term outlook.  Resistance should hold, and the  unit should continue to fall thereafter. The next support may appear at 117.20 -- so expect the unit to turn even lower later in the week.  The next break of support, now at 117.20, should bring in 116.20 once again further out.  We still believe that a fall to 115.00 is still in the pipeline in the slightlly longer-term.          -   USD/CAD  has been to 1.3530, then rallied back to 1.3535. keep an eye on it, as the risk is still a further upmove to 1.3730 area.  There is no hurry to set-up short positions just yet. We will wait for more data so we can fine-tune tactics here. If there is a good chance of further appreciation in the unit, then we will wait for higher levels like 1.3730 to set up short positions. We still expect further declines to 1.3000 further out.       USD/CHF  been to as low as 1.3210, but bounced back to 1.3330. It is still difficult to ascertain whether or not we will  get another upside follow-through to 1.3420 area, despite the rally. For the downside, we want to see if the recent decline extends to 1.3200 or lower after breaking the minor 1.3240 swing point. A break to the downside obviously eases the uptrend's momentum. But wherever the short term terminus will eventually occur, the longer-term negative view should eventually reassert.  Longer-term, the 1.25 - 1.24 targets should come into focus again. -   AUD/USD  fell through to the 6617 low but should recover back to .6660 area later in the day, perhaps even a test of the .6680 swing point.  We await for more data. The recent downmove has been tame relative to the magnitude of declines we saw in other major currencies. The longer-term scenario is unchanged -- a  move to the .6740 top should come soon. A break of the .6740 top is still the ultimate confirmation that the uptrend has resumed. The rally should accelerate after a break, and 6850 remains the immediate objective in the very near-term.  Further out, we are now factoring-in .7000 as target.      NZD/USD   currency failed another test of the .5880 resistance and came down hard, well below the .5840 hypothetical support. The downturn may find support at .5820, and will finetune upside possibilities from there. The risk is further decline to .5800 area. Nonetheless, we believe still that the  uptrend is still set to resume further. The  next upside target is still the top at 5890.   Further out,  the rally may bring the unit to .6050 - .6100 targets again.        EUR/JPY  has been to as low as 135.29 but bounce back since then. It may rallyback to 136.30/40 area, but it is too early to say whether or not the uptrend can be sustained. Nonetheless,  we expect the main bullish scenario to keep at some point nonetheless, and we will maintain 140.20 as immediate target, and 145.00 the destination further out.   Look up the individual currencies for more details and specific trading recommendations.  Refer also to the Daily Equity Strategy web page for latest FX and equity updates during the New York trading session.

	啥时候

	今天有人预计会突破1.160，本周将会进军1.170

	本周，那就会更高，比1.17高啊

	保守

	看看，鸟语就知道了

	可以这么说，我的目标相信鸟语说的1.25