9 - 21 - 09 外汇，黄金，DJI 行情指导 （技术分析精要系列讲座：六，跟踪四周）

48# lss


不错，明确了宽松政策终止/退出的时间 ——表明不再增加了．
只是说，逐步减缓购买速度，到明年第一季度末结束，但是并没有说，减少．．．。
这种陈述，与上次将购买国债延伸到１０月份终止，一样。
3月份的承诺数量，并没有由此减少。

对市场的影响是：
可能市场原来认为，美联储今后还将这样干，现在明确说了，不这样干了。

49# lss


这是不对的，评论员自己在添油加酱。

下面是美联储声明全文。

Press Release

Release Date: September 23, 2009

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn.  Conditions in financial markets have improved further, and activity in the housing sector has increased.  Household spending seems to be stabilizing, but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.  Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales.  Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability.  The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.  To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt.  The Committee will gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets and anticipates that they will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010.  As previously announced, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of $300 billion of Treasury securities will be completed by the end of October 2009.  The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.  The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
其中，通过下面两句话，给出明确时间表
The Committee will gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets and anticipates that they will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010.  
As previously announced, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of $300 billion of Treasury securities will be completed by the end of October 2009.

继续关注，英镑/日元，双顶头部形成过程。

什么时候最终形成，就是英镑即将崩溃的信号。
现在，或许时间还略早了些，但是，值得每天就加以关注。

欧元

在上面15分钟图示反弹上行通道的顶端受阻后，当看到价格迅速返回到1.4760；
而有效突破通道上轨，则表明将出现潜在的，再次向1.4843附近攀升的上涨行情。

关注，15分钟图，看跌反转信号，是否继续有效。如果继续有效，欧元向上突破的可能性较小。

也可能是一些细节我转述错了，因为我是早上开了电视，匆匆忙忙在洗刷和吃早餐的时候听的。

刚才摸索了在MT上准确画安德鲁均线的方法：
先按鲨版的说明画好平行通道（上下轨），然后画第二个平行通道，其中一边与第一个平行通道上轨重合，拖动第二个平行通道的另外一边，看到如图所示的数字，该数字应该是表示“水平距离/垂直距离”。先拖动到与下轨重合，保持第一个数字为0，这是显示“0/500”，即上下轨垂直距离500点，据此，把它拖动到“0/250”即可。

56# lss


很好，

日图上，或者局部，
澳元，纽元，美元/瑞郎，以及美元指数，均可以用安德鲁均值线，进一步观察价格的近期发展趋向和波动限制。

这个安德鲁均值线，在一个趋势基本，或者充分发展后，可以用；但是，趋势形成前，无法用。
所以，用来观察，判别趋势进行时的强弱状态，以及转折倾向性，比较合适。

英镑

似乎弱了点。但是，后市，将有可能略为强劲些。
价格在9月15日顶点开始运行倾斜三角形下跌结构，使得价格从9月11日顶点1.6740开始的下跌，看上去像一个修正结构。
也就是说，目前价格很可能仍然处于从9月1日低点开始的上行修正走势之中，现在运行在其中的浪B，之后，还有一个浪C向上运行。

如果属实，即时短线价格一旦完成了从9月15日开始的倾斜三角形下跌形态，将较快的返回到9月15日顶端，1.6660附近。
对此，持有沽空仓位在价格到达1.6030以下后，要多加注意。

美元指数，

价格从昨天顶点，开始的下跌修正，是一个下降“旗型”修正形态。
旗杆，就是昨天从低点到顶点的幅度，大约78点，价格在76.09，昨天上行幅度之0.618修正价位附近获得承接，突破下降旗型顶端限制线，有望再次去测试77.10附近的阻力价位。

DJI

如期在测试9700一线的支撑，如下原因，这里很可能顶不住下跌修正的压力。

原油继续昨天的下跌走势，黄金也跌破了1000，