依然喜欢你---保证金(第21周)

Leonardo1977 · 发表于 2005-9-26 09:22

原帖由 cashmere 于 2005-9-26 08:49 发表
继续为自己加油!继续探索!

这是一个外国人做模拟盘的经验，供参考。

I think you need a longer time frame to demo an account before going live. I've been demoing accounts for about a year. I'm on my third system which I feel very comfortable with and have been demoing it for about 6 months. I'm about ready to go live and during this year I read a lot of books on forex trading and I'd suggest you do the same. I also have a background in finance and I've done a lot of statistical analysis on the data. Basically calculating standard deviation on the volatility for each currency pair over a 1 year time frame and applying that to a 99%, 95%, and 90% confidence interval. I've found the results to be quite accurate. I use these confidence intevals to manage my money and when to get in and out of a position. Over this year of demoing accouts I've worked out a lot of my mistakes and I've developed my own trading strategy which is starting to become profitable. Although all of this is paper trading, I know once I go live and with the use of statistical analysis I'll be able to ride the volatility and be able to avoid currency pairs which are not very volatile thus tieing up your capital which could be used for more profitable trades.

Leonardo1977 · 发表于 2005-9-26 09:25

原帖由然于 2005-9-26 09:09 发表
虎虎好!发哥好!大家好!

发哥回来了真高兴...

虎虎天凉了,记得早晚加件衣服,心里要热乎儿,是不是?

然，你的那个指标调好了吗？

cashmere · 发表于 2005-9-26 09:26

对错?但不希望美元涨了.

cashmere · 发表于 2005-9-26 09:28

原帖由 lslqxsh 于 2005-9-26 09:16 发表

有虎皮．天然的！

不用加了！h:

h:那也长出新绒毛啦!

zc0615 · 发表于 2005-9-26 09:37

提示: 作者被禁止或删除内容自动屏蔽

cashmere · 发表于 2005-9-26 09:46

原帖由 Leonardo1977 于 2005-9-26 09:22 发表

这是一个外国人做模拟盘的经验，供参考。
I think you need a longer time frame to demo an account before going live. I've been demoing accounts for about a year. I'm on my third system which I f ...

confidence interval----指可靠的运行区间?也就是我们所说的波段的高度吧?

Leonardo1977 · 发表于 2005-9-26 09:52

原帖由 cashmere 于 2005-9-26 09:46 发表

confidence interval----指可靠的运行区间?也就是我们所说的波段的高度吧?

confidence interval 指的是“置信区间”

是在不确定的市场环境下，寻求相对稳定性的统计方法。这是一个具有精确统计意义的技术术语，应用于若干次测量的平均值(或等效的统计数值)，而绝不能应用于某个个别的量测结果。这个数据表明相关的概率，我们常说：可以期望”真值”以99%的信赖度处在被测值附近±X个单位的范围之内，这就意味着有证据使我们相信，假如把同样的测量进行很多次的话，我们就会发现”真值”处在这个区间的次数占99%，这和我们说真值处在此区间的概率为99%是相同的道理。

说得直白一些，就是指成功的概率。