日评+译文

	May 15, 2003 As expected, with CAD's technical outlook favoring our long suspected 1.3660 scenario, buyers from the last session ventured below 1.3800 level for the first time in five years. For those who may wish to dare a counter-trend trade by selling CAD at 1.3660, now is the time to get ready for the eventuality. Similarly, JPY too has broken into buying mode, advancing below 116.00 support. From here, its intended downside target may very well be 111.80. If so, the 116.50 level will be a great buy entry to catch the ride down. EUR on the other appears to test its downside in preparation for a sell-0ff correction from its upper channel resistance at 1.1620-50. GBP appears to probe its readiness for a rally to reach into the low 1.6300s, where sellers should come in for a showdown. SWF looks less than certain about its next move between going below 1.3000 or above 1.3300. A lot will depend on how EUR will behave next. Stay tuned. 正如所料，CAD从技术上看，符合我们预想的1。3660情况，买家在最后一轮攻势中将其抬高之1。38以下，这在5年中还是第一次，现在是发起最后一击的时候了。相似地，JPY也已经突破116的支撑线。就此，非常可能升至111。80一线。如果这样，116。5一线就是买家入场的大好时机。EUR看来象是在准备从1。1620-1。1650阻力通道上回调。GBP看起来已经准备好力量上冲至1。63一线，并在这里将出现卖家。SWF的下一个方向并不像其他货币那样清晰。可能冲至1。3000以下，也有可能上至1。33以上。而这种不确定性很大程度上取决于EUR的下一步表现。 Holding AUD's 0.6300 sell position, RRR-250/+150pts. Wait to buy JPY at 116.50, RRR-50/+100pts, or take profit at close. Wait to sell AUD at 0.6700, RRR-150/+300pts, or take profit at close. Wait to sell EUR at 1.1650, RRR-150/+300pts, or take profit at close. Wait to sell GBP at 1.6300, RRR-50/+200pts, or take profit at close. Wait to sell CAD at 1.3660, RRR-150/+300pts, or take profit at close.

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