Saxo Bank 外汇分析华语版（仅供观赏）

	欧元美元区间盘整可能回落到1.2320底部，但此后应突破1.2385顶部；英镑美元可能见到1.8340/30附近的支持。 Tuesday, August 17, 2004 8:45 AM GMT Saxo 银行外汇分析华语版。 DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY:   Aug 17  -    Europe -    Investor confidence in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, probably fell for the first month in three in August amid concern about a global slowdown and surging oil prices, a survey of economists showed.   The ZEW Center for European Economic Research's index of institutional and analyst sentiment may have dropped to 48 from 48.4 in July, according to the median of forecasts.  ZEW will publish its index, based on a monthly survey of about 300 people, at 11 a.m. in Mannheim.    The pace of economic growth in Germany may have peaked in the second quarter as the 44 percent increase in oil prices this year and unemployment of more than 10 percent delay a recovery in consumer spending, the Bundesbank said yesterday. Exports, which powered the economy in the first half, dropped for the first month in four in June as growth in the U.S. and Japan slowed. -     The Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, said growth in Europe's largest economy may have peaked in the second quarter as job cuts and rising oil costs threaten to delay a recovery in consumer spending. ``It is not certain if the current speed of expansion can be maintained in the coming months,'' the Frankfurt-based central bank said in its monthly report for August. A further increase in oil prices could pose ``serious risks'' for the recovery.  Record oil prices may add another deterrent to consumer spending, which hasn't risen in Germany since the first quarter of 2003. Unemployment of more than 10 percent has discouraged households from increasing purchases, leaving the country's economic recovery dependent on exports. -       U.K. house prices grew at their slowest pace in a year in July and the number of property sales fell for a fourth consecutive month, as higher borrowing costs begin to cool demand, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors said.  The net balance of surveyors reporting a rise in house prices from a year ago, minus those identifying a decline, fell to 3 percent from 17 percent in June and 43 percent in May. The average number of sales by each chartered surveyor slid to 28 in the three months to July from 29 in the month-earlier period, RICS added.   -     Japan may set the highest interest rate in almost four years on 30-year bonds it sells today.  The 500 billion yen ($4.51 billion) sale may lure buyers after the government last week said the pace of Japan's economic expansion in the second quarter declined to less than half that of the previous three months. Slowing growth may prolong a six- year slide in consumer prices, or deflation, which increases the value of debt's fixed payments. Ten-year bonds completed the biggest two-week gain in more than five years after the report.   The securities will probably have a 2.5 percent coupon and may draw bids after the gap in yields between 10- and 30-year bonds widened to near the most since October 2002, signaling longer debt offers more value than shorter securities. -     Crude oil futures fell from a record after the victory of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in a weekend referendum eased concern that shipments from the country would be disrupted.   Prices rose 6 percent last week on concern the vote would cause violence in Venezuela, the fourth-biggest oil supplier to the U.S. The country's oil minister, Rafael Ramirez, said Friday oil would surge if Chavez were defeated. The president won the right to stay in office by a margin of 58 percent to 42 percent.   Crude oil for September delivery fell 53 cents, or 1.1 percent, to close at $46.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices reached $46.91 during the session, the highest since oil began trading in New York in 1983. Futures were up 48 percent from a year ago and set records in all but one session since July 30. FX Market Summary   -       The dollar traded near a four-week low against the euro in Europe on speculation a government report will show U.S. inflation slowed in July, reducing the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.   Consumer prices probably rose 0.2 percent, down from June's 0.3 percent gain, according to the median of forecasts. The dollar slid 3 percent this month on signs a slowdown in growth and inflation may persuade the Fed to keep its key rate at 1.5 percent in September after lifting it in June and August. The European Central Bank's benchmark is 2 percent.  Against the euro, the dollar traded at $1.2371 at 8:16 a.m. in London from $1.2363 late yesterday in New York. On Friday it fell to $1.2383, the lowest since July 20. The U.S. currency was at 110.37 yen from 110.47. The dollar moved little in currency trading Monday. The greenback gained less than 0.2% against the Japanese yen, finished flat vs. the euro, and lost 0.2% vs. the Canadian dollar. Forex Technicals:   -      EUR/USD  -    The common currency remains range-bound ahead of the U.S. CPI data, and due to lack of market-moving euro-zone developments.  The currency pair is currently at the high-end of the range and may drift down lower to 1.2325 area from prevailing 1.2355 level.  No change in the general view -- the currency should make a move towards the crucial 1.2500 resistance at some point, and the uptrend should pick up pace further once 1.2500 resistance is taken out.   And further out, the 1.2925 major top become a tempting objective with every new rally which takes out the previous top. -     GBP/USD  -   the currency is having a case of blahs over news that U.K. house prices grew at their slowest pace in a year in July -- which of course also means that base rates hikes in the UK will be slowed down as well.  Allow for further 1.8340 - 1.8330 dip, but the currency should get its bearing back later in the day.  No change in the general view --  the main uptrend should take out the 1.8470 top before long.  There's also no change in longer-term view  --  the rally should then go on to take out 1.8500,  a new upleg further out should challenge the 1.8800 top early next month. And beyond that, the 1.9140 major top beckons. -     USD/JPY -     the sell-off since the 112.10 top indeed continues to score after it struck resisatnce at 111.00.  There's no change in the longer-term view  -- the downtrend should accelerate further,  with the 109.40 the short-term objective, and 107.60 baseline as next primary target.   -    USD/CHF  -     the currency us range-bound after it hit support at 1.2378 area, and may rise back to 1.2455/60 from prevailing 1.2417 price. Nonetheless, no change in the short-term scenario is necessary -- the downtrend should continue from there and should fall below the 1.2378 trough soon.  There's no change in the main scenario as well.   The downtrend has reasserted,  and should have the 1.2200 base as the next downside focus.  Further out,  the 1.2145 low for the year has become a new focus for the bears. -     USD/CAD  --  the greenback continues to fall, as market sentiment continues to speculate that sharp economic growth may drive the Bank of Canada to raise its interest-rate target next month to pre-empt inflation. The Canadian trade surplus widened by C$3 billion to a record C$8.6 billion in June, and the outlook begins to outstrip expectations for the U.S. economy. The ensuing sell-off should proceed towards the 1.3000 base from here (1.3044) and eventually, the 1.2685 area becomes the next primary focus. -     AUD/USD  -     currency found resistance at the .7185 high anew, and may drift back to the .7170/60 area again.  But firm support above .7150 should finally push the currency over the top, and should go much further thereafter. There's  no change in major scenario  --  the rally should take out the .7185 resistance, confirming  .7370 area as the next major focus. The currency should then move towards .7500  much further out. -     NZD/USD  -   the currency found resistance at .6675 again, and m,ay drift back towards .6640/30 base. But the uptrend should continue to roll forward from there. The next barrier comes in at the .6750 area, but further out  .7000 looms large as target. -     EUR/JPY  -     no change in view --  resistance appeared at 137.06 and consolidates sideways, waiting for further developments. Support at 136.20 should  keep the consolidation going . The cross should resume the uptrend thereafter,  with the 139.00 area the next primary focus further out. -     EUR/CHF  -    the cross reconfirmed a potential base above 1.5300, and makes a new initiative to the upside --  which should make it to at least 1.5365. We will now assign the upside swing level at 1.5375  -- break of which may trigger a new rally with 1.5450 as focus.   -    EUR/GBP  -   support was actually found at .6687 -- the rally has resumed and is testing the .6730 top.  The uptrend should push through, and should shortly reach .6785 area - .6800 major resistance area.   -     GBP/JPY  -     the rally corrects after reaching a 204.80 top, but should see support at cIRCA these level (202.70 - 202.60).  The rally should resume thereafter; the current rally may be the start of a new uptrend aimed at  208.00 - 210.00 further out. The consolidation above 203.00 should take out the 204.10 top soon. -      GBP/CHF  -    the cross slipped further towards 2.2800  -- for now no change in view. Nonetheless, let is now assign a critical support level, which is shaping up to be the area at 2.2770. Either new support should hold soon, and a new rally takes off from  around the area, and then go on to retest the 2.3400 top. Or support fails, and with it the outlook of a new bull phase fizzles out. ================================================== FX Market Summary   -       The dollar remained pressured against the majors in Monday’s session.   Against the euro, the dollar traded at 1.2336 from 1.2374 late Friday. The dollar traded modestly higher to 110.76 yen from 110.71 on Friday.  The Pound was slightly firmer at 1.8435 from 1.8415. In the aftermath of Friday’s abysmal trade deficit figures, there is renewed concern concern regarding the US ’s ability to fund the current account, which requires at least $1.6bn per day. Given Friday’s data, the US TIC data will be all the more important. There is a great deal of downside risk for the dollar today, if the TIC data continues to show declining appetite for US equities and treasurys . In May, there was only a 56 bn inflow into US assets-far below the nearly 100 bn seen in January 2004. Oil still remains a concern and the referendum in Venezuela offered only modest respite for oil prices, after it was announced that President Chavez won the vote. Other US data includes the August number for the NY empire index, which may see some retrenchment given the recent spate of high oil prices. There was little data on the euro zone calendar today, but the euro continued to trade firmer against the dollar on the weaker sentiment toward the greenback. The Bundesbank said that economic growth may have already peaked and the job profile and high oil prices remain threats to further recovery. The yen modestly weakened early on against the greenback on the back of continued high oil prices, which remained a key constraint on the Nikkei, which extended its three month low. The U.K. Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors will publish its July index of house prices later this morning. The consensus is for a slight moderation in house prices. Sterling has been trading firmer in the soft dollar environment recently. The Canadian auto sales data for June is due today and may attract some attention, if it continues in the strong theme noted in Friday’s trade balance. There is mounting evidence that the Canadian economy is staging a robust recovery and upcoming data should confirm so. Next week’s retail sales and CPI will be important for setting expectations for the BoC meeting on September 7. The Australian dollar gained on expectations rising commodity prices will boost export earnings and after the U.S. trade deficit widened to a record, denting demand for the U.S. currency.  Commodities, such as gold, aluminum and copper, account for about two-thirds of Australia's export earnings, which make up one- fifth of the economy. Copper futures rose 4 percent in New York on Friday to a three-month high, gold rose 1.2 percent and aluminum traded in London rose 0.8 percent Friday for a fourth day of increase.   The Australian dollar traded at 71.75 U.S. cents from 71.69 cents in late New York trading Friday. Earlier, it rose to as high as 71.88 U.S. cents. News, data, references and commentaries compiled from Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, CBSMarketWatch, Briefing.com, and Economy.com Euro/US Dollar (1.2347) -  08:37 GMT, Aug 17, 2004    欧元美元(EUR/USD)：由于缺乏动力，美国CPI数据公布之前欧元保持区间盘整。目前处于盘整区间的高端，有可能回落到1.2325区间。总体观点不变——欧元应走出一波行情进行到1.2500阻力位置，一旦1.2500阻力被突破应进一步走得更高。随着每一波升势都突破前期顶部，1.2925重要顶部也成为了一个诱人的目标。 Recommendations: Bought EUR at 1.2191. Keep stop-loss at 1.2290. Keep profit target at 1.2500. British Pound/US Dollar (1.8365) -  08:37 GMT, Aug 17, 2004    英镑美元（GBP/USD）：有消息称今年7月份英国房屋价格以最慢地速度上升，使得英镑表现得比较消沉——因为这理所当然地意味着英国提高基准利率的速度也会放慢。允许进一步跌到1.8340 - 1.8330，但在今天晚些时候应收回熊市。总体观点不变——不久以后主要的升势应突破1.8470顶部。长期观点也不变——此后升势应继续走高到1.8500，在下个月早期英镑有可能上扬挑战1.8800顶部，如果超过这个价位那么上看1.9140重要顶部。 Recommendations: Bought GBP at 1.8282 and 1.8282. Move stop-loss from 1.8350 to 1.8310. Keep profit target at 1.8650. US Dollar/Japanese Yen (110.38) -  08:38 GMT, Aug 17, 2004    美元日元（USD/JPY ）：从112.10顶部以来的下跌在突破111.00失败后继续走低。长期观点不变——下降趋势应进一步加速，以109.40为短期目标，107.60底线为下次下跌的首要目标。 Recommendations: Sold USD at 110.80. Move stop-loss from 112.30 to 111.20. Keep profit target at 107.70. US Dollar/Swiss Franc (1.2418) -  08:39 GMT, Aug 17, 2004    美元瑞朗（USD/CHF）： 触及到1.2378支持区间后立即反弹走高，可能回升到1.2455/60。不过，短期观点保持不变是必要的——下降趋势应继续，很快应进一步下跌到1.2378底部之下。主要观点也不变。下降趋势已经重拾，应以1.2200 底部作为下一波跌势的目标。今年的低点1.2145已经成为熊市新的目标。 Recommendations: Sold USD at 1.2534. Move stop-loss from 1.2490 to 1.2520. Keep profit target at 1.2150. US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (1.3046) -  08:39 GMT, Aug 17, 2004    美元加元（USD/CAD ）：美元继续下跌，市场继续推测加拿大快速的经济增长可能导致加拿大银行在下个月提高利率以抑制通货膨胀。加拿大的贸易盈余对比6月份的86亿加元增加了30亿加元，加拿大经济的前景开始超过对美元经济的预期。此后紧接着的下跌应进行到1.3000底部，最终我们需要见到1.2685的主要下跌目标。 Recommendations: Stand aside. Australian Dollar/US Dollar (0.7170) -  08:39 GMT, Aug 17, 2004    澳元美元（AUD/USD）：澳元在.7185高点找到阻力，可能再次回撤到.7170/60区间。但.7150之上的强大支持应最终推动汇价超过顶部，此后应走得更高。主要观点不变——升势应突破.7185阻力，确认.7370区间作为下一个目标。然后应进一步上涨到 .7500。 Recommendations: Bought AUD at 0.7146. Keep stop-loss at 0.7135. Keep profit target at 0.7500. NZ Dollar/US Dollar (0.6649) -  08:38 GMT, Aug 17, 2004    纽元美元（NZD/USD）：纽元在.6675再次找到阻力，然后调整到.6640/30底部。但升势应继续。下一个强阻力来自于.6750区间，但进一步的目标在.7000。 Recommendations: Bought NZD at 0.6303. Keep stop-loss at 0.6580. Keep profit target at 0.6800. Euro/Japanese Yen (136.29) -  08:41 GMT, Aug 17, 2004    欧元日元（EUR/JPY）：观点不变——阻力出现在137.06然后横向整理，等待行情进一步的发展。136.40的支持应使盘整状态继续。此后应重拾升势，下一个目标在139.00区间。 Recommendations: Long EUR position from 136.12 was closed at 136.09 stop-loss. Stand aside. Euro/Swiss Franc (1.5333) -  08:42 GMT, Aug 17, 2004    欧元瑞朗（EUR/CHF）： 再次在1.5300之上确认了一个潜在底部，形成上升走势的新的开端——这应至少走高到1.5365。上涨关键位置1.5375——突破这个位置可能导致一波新的升势，目标1.5450。 Recommendations: Bought EUR at 1.5335. Move stop-loss from 1.5270 to 1.5260. Keep profit target at 1.5850. Euro/British Pound (0.6717) -  08:42 GMT, Aug 17, 2004    欧元英镑（EUR/GBP）：实际上在.6687找到支持——升势已经重拾并在.6730顶部。升势应继续推高，并应很快达到.6850－.6870重要阻力区间。 Recommendations: Bought EUR at 0.6694. Keep stop-loss at 0.6670. Keep profit target at 0.6850. British Pound/Japanese Yen (202.82) -  08:44 GMT, Aug 17, 2004    英镑日元（GBP/JPY）：在到达204.80顶部之后进入调整，但应在202.70 - 202.60区间见到支持。此后应重拾升势，当前的上升行情将是进一步上涨到 208.00 - 210.00目标的起点。203.00以上的盘整应很快突破204.10顶部。 Recommendations: Bought GBP at 203.28. Move stop-loss from 202.60 to 201.60. Keep profit target at 208.00. British Pound/Swiss Franc (2.2831) -  08:45 GMT, Aug 17, 2004    英镑瑞朗（GBP/CHF）：进一步滑落走低到2.2800——现在观点不变。支持可能出现在2.2770区间。任何新的支持都应很快守住，一波新的升势将从这里开始，然后再次测试2.3400顶部。反之如果支持失守，那么新的牛市状态宣告失败。 Recommendations: Stand aside.

	GBP still looks sick -- may fall further to 1.8250; USD/JPY falls through 109.80 support -- decline accelerates to 109.00 Wednesday, August 18, 2004 7:26 AM GMT Forex Technicals:   -      EUR/USD  -    The common currency was flummoxed by the mixed data -- the  U.S. CPI data was friendly but the housing starts number was not. The currency popped up to 1.2385 but came down just as quickly back to the 1.2320 support.  No change in the general view nonethless  -- the currency should make a move towards the crucial 1.2500 resistance at some point, and the uptrend should pick up pace further once 1.2500 resistance is taken out.   And further out, the 1.2925 major top become a tempting objective with every new rally which takes out the previous top. -     GBP/USD  -   the currency rose to 1.8435 then fell lower than where it came from -- it has been down to 1.8345  -- but no change in the outlook. Allow for further 1.8340 - 1.8330 dip, but the currency should get its bearing back later in the day.  No change in the general view --  the main uptrend should take out the 1.8470 top before long.  There's also no change in longer-term view  --  the rally should then go on to take out 1.8500,  a new upleg further out should challenge the 1.8800 top early next month. And beyond that, the 1.9140 major top beckons. -     USD/JPY -     no change in view, as the JPY takes solace from improving outlook in the Japanese stock market. The sell-off since the 112.10 top should continue to score after it struck resisatnce at 111.00.  There's no change in the longer-term view  -- the downtrend should accelerate further,  with the 109.40 the short-term objective, and 107.60 baseline as next primary target.   -    USD/CHF  -     the currency did rise back to 1.2466.  Nonetheless, no change in the short-term scenario is necessary -- the downtrend should continue from there and should fall below the 1.2378 trough soon.  There's no change in the main scenario as well.   The downtrend has reasserted,  and should have the 1.2200 base as the next downside focus.  Further out,  the 1.2145 low for the year has become a new focus for the bears. -     USD/CAD  --  no change in view here ---  the greenback should continue to fall, as market sentiment continues to speculate that sharp economic growth may drive the Bank of Canada to raise its interest-rate target next month to pre-empt inflation. The Canadian trade surplus widened by C$3 billion to a record C$8.6 billion in June, and the outlook begins to outstrip expectations for the U.S. economy. The ensuing sell-off should proceed towards the 1.3000 base from here (1.3044) and eventually, the 1.2685 area becomes the next primary focus. -     AUD/USD  -     currency did  find resistance at the .7185 high anew, and drifts back to the .7170/60 area again -- no change in the view.  But firm support above .7150 should finally push the currency over the top, and should go much further thereafter. There's  no change in major scenario  --  the rally should take out the .7185 resistance, confirming  .7370 area as the next major focus. The currency should then move towards .7500  much further out. -     NZD/USD  -   no change in view --  the currency found resistance at .6675 again, and m,ay drift back towards .6640/30 base. But the uptrend should continue to roll forward from there. The next barrier comes in at the .6750 area, but further out  .7000 looms large as target. -     EUR/JPY  -     no change in view --  resistance appeared at 137.06 and consolidates sideways. The only fly in the ointment is that support at 136.20 did not hold. The cross may fall further to the 135.20 area further out. The longer-term view remains positive nonetheless.  The cross should resume the uptrend thereafter,  with the 139.00 area the next primary focus further out. -     EUR/CHF  -    the cross reconfirmed a potential base above 1.5300, and made a new initiative to the upside  with a rally which made it to 1.5375.  We still have the upside swing level at 1.5375  -- break of which may trigger a new rally with 1.5450 as focus.   -    EUR/GBP  -   no change in the view --  support was actually found at .6687 -- the rally has resumed and is testing the .6730 top.  The uptrend should push through, and should shortly reach .6785 area - .6800 major resistance area.   -     GBP/JPY  -     the rally corrects after reaching a 204.80 top, and more importantly, did not see support at  202.70 - 202.60 as expected.  So for now , we will just have to see how the 2020.00 will fare. Nonetheless, we still believe that the rally should resume thereafter; the next rally may be the start of a new uptrend aimed at  208.00 - 210.00 further out. -      GBP/CHF  -    the cross slipped further towards 2.2800  and has rallied to 2.2900 since then -- for now no change in view. Nonetheless, let is now assign a critical support level, which is shaping up to be the area at 2.2770. Either new support should hold soon, and a new rally takes off from  around the area, and then go on to retest the 2.3400 top. Or support fails, and with it the outlook of a new bull phase fizzles out.    News, data, references and commentaries compiled from Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, CBSMarketWatch, Briefing.com, and Economy.com Euro/US Dollar (1.2334) -  07:19 GMT, Aug 18, 2004    EUR/USD  -    The common currency found natural support at 1.2320 area and continues to trade sideways, still waiting for that piece of news that will finally push the sentiment into a higher plane.  The technical remain positive, and no change in the view regardless -- the currency should make a new move beyond 1.2385,  towards the crucial 1.2500 resistance at some point.  The uptrend should pick up pace further once 1.2500 resistance is taken out.   And further out, the 1.2925 major top become a tempting objective with every new rally which takes out the previous top. Recommendations: Bought EUR at 1.2191. Keep stop-loss at 1.2270. Keep profit target at 1.2500. British Pound/US Dollar (1.8271) -  07:19 GMT, Aug 18, 2004    GBP/USD  -   the currency has been down to 1.8269  -- and is still looks sick. The RICS report reinforced the impression of a cooling housing market, which takes the urgency from the BoE to further goose up base rates for the rest of the year.  Further decline to 1.8250 area may follow from here. But no change in the short-term outlook -- the currency should get its bearing back later in the week.  No change in the general view  as well--  the main uptrend should take out the 1.8470 top before long.  Then the rally should then go on to take out 1.8500,  a new upleg further out should challenge the 1.8800 top early next month. And beyond that, the 1.9140 major top beckons. Recommendations: Long GBP position from 1.8282 and 1.8282 was closed at 1.8274 stop-loss. Stand aside. US Dollar/Japanese Yen (109.83) -  07:19 GMT, Aug 18, 2004    USD/JPY -      the currency pair continues to fall from technical reasons and should take out the 109.80 low momentarily. The sell-off since the 112.10 top should continue to score, especially now that an important support is about to give way.  There's no change in the longer-term view  -- the downtrend should accelerate further,  with the 109.00 the short-term objective, and 107.60 baseline as next primary target.   Recommendations: Sold USD at 110.80. Move stop-loss from 111.20 to 110.55. Keep profit target at 107.70. US Dollar/Swiss Franc (1.2449) -  07:20 GMT, Aug 18, 2004    USD/CHF  -     the currency may have found resistance at 1.2480 and gets set for a new downturn. No change in the short-term scenario  -- the downtrend should continue from here and should fall below the 1.2378 trough soon.  There's no change in the main scenario as well.   The downtrend has reasserted,  and should have the 1.2200 base as the next downside focus.  Further out,  the 1.2145 low for the year has become a new focus for the bears. Recommendations: Sold USD at 1.2534. Keep stop-loss at 1.2530. Keep profit target at 1.2150. US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (1.3047) -  07:21 GMT, Aug 18, 2004    USD/CAD  --  the currency pair should continue to fall, as market sentiment and fundamental continue to stack up the odds in the loonie's favor. Odd have increased that the Bank of Canada will raise its interest-rate target next month to pre-empt inflation. The Canadian trade surplus widened by C$3 billion to a record C$8.6 billion in June, and the outlook begins to outstrip expectations for the U.S. economy. The ensuing sell-off should proceed towards the 1.3000 base from here (1.3044) and eventually, the 1.2685 area becomes the next primary focus. Recommendations: Stand aside. Australian Dollar/US Dollar (0.7152) -  07:21 GMT, Aug 18, 2004       AUD/USD  -     currency fell  back to as low as .7130 -- but no change in the short-term view is required.  the currency looks to be on the recovery stage at this juncture, and should finally push the currency over the .7196 top, and should go much further thereafter. There's  no change in major scenario as well  --  the rally should take out the .7185 resistance, confirming  .7370 area as the next major focus. The currency should then move towards .7500  much further out. Recommendations: Bought AUD at 0.7146. Keep stop-loss at 0.7125. Keep profit target at 0.7500. NZ Dollar/US Dollar (0.6637) -  07:21 GMT, Aug 18, 2004      NZD/USD  -   still on a flatline trajectory -- no change in the short-term view.  The currency found support at .6630 again, and should rally back towards .6680 top thereafter  --  the uptrend should continue to roll forward from there. The next barrier comes in at the .6750 area, but further out  .7000 looms large as target. Recommendations: Bought NZD at 0.6303. Keep stop-loss at 0.6580. Keep profit target at 0.6800. Euro/Japanese Yen (135.36) -  07:22 GMT, Aug 18, 2004    EUR/JPY  -    new  resistance appeared at 136.00 and consolidates sideways -- a final fall to 135.20 - 135.00 follows thereafter. The longer-term view remains positive nonetheless.  The cross should resume the uptrend thereafter,  with the 139.00 area the next primary focus further out. Recommendations: Buy EUR at 135.36. Stop-loss: 134.20. Profit target: 139.00. Euro/Swiss Franc (1.5355) -  07:23 GMT, Aug 18, 2004       EUR/CHF  -    the cross made a new initiative to the upside  with a rally which made it to 1.5360. the cross consolidates further, which is nominally positive.  The upside swing level at 1.5375  has been taken out and the cross may rise further to 1.5400 -- break of which brings on an easy test of 1.5450.   Recommendations: Bought EUR at 1.5335. Keep stop-loss at 1.5260. Keep profit target at 1.5850. Euro/British Pound (0.6746) -  07:23 GMT, Aug 18, 2004        EUR/GBP  - the rally has resumed in earnest and consolidates at .6760 level. But the uptrend should push through, and  shortly reach .6785 area - .6800 major resistance area.   Recommendations: Bought EUR at 0.6694. Keep stop-loss at 0.6670. Keep profit target at 0.6850. British Pound/Japanese Yen (200.57) -  07:24 GMT, Aug 18, 2004       GBP/JPY  -     we did not see support at  202.00 area -- but 200.00 may be a better place to draw a line  in the sand. Nonetheless, we still believe that the rally should resume thereafter; the next rally may be the start of a new uptrend aimed at  208.00 - 210.00 further out. Recommendations: Long GBP position from 203.28 was closed at 200.79 stop-loss. Buy GBP at 200.57. Stop-loss: 199.10. Profit target: 208.00. British Pound/Swiss Franc (2.2753) -  07:25 GMT, Aug 18, 2004    GBP/CHF  -    the cross slipped again and may go to 2.2720 area. If no support appears at those levels, then we will alter the main premise for the cross. But technically speaking, a recovery is due to at least 2.3000 area sometime soon. Recommendations: Stand aside.