外汇分析华语版Saxo Bank

	欧元/美元今天可能回升到1.2170，但密切关注可能最终下跌到1.2000 - 1.1950。 Updated: Monday, Jul 26, 2004, 10:39 GMT 外汇分析华语版Saxo Bank FX Market Summary   -       The dollar firmed against the majors in early Friday’s session.   The dollar was up to 1.2170 against the euro from 1.2256 yesterday. Similarly, the dollar rose against the yen to 110.25 from 109.78 yesterday. The greenback also advanced strongly against the Canadian Dollar, the Aussie and the Kiwi Dollars. Strength in the dollar came on the back of residual optimism from Greenspan’s semi-annual testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is no data on the calendar today so trading will no doubt be fairly quiet. However, week-end profit trading will probably reduce the greenback's gains towards the end of the U.S.session. The euro zone data continued soft. German import prices moderated in June as with a 0.6% (m/m) decline. Italian retail sales were also weaker than expected. The May print for retail sales fell 0.6% (m/m) and on a year ago basis, sales fell 3.2%. On balance the data has not had much of an impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate. Rather, the dollar has been the major diver of the pair. The yen fell on the back of a disappointing tertiary index print for May. The index fell 1% in May from April. The all-industries index fell 0.7%(m/m). Both disappointed expectations. In terms of the tertiary index, this was the first retreat in three months amid mixed signals that the economy is trying to recover. Increased capital spending and an extremely robust export sector are creating jobs, and thus fuelling some renewed, yet sluggish consumer spending that makes up half the economy. And while these data disappointed expectations, the MoF portfolio flows data showed that for the week of July 16, foreigners bought a net ¥132 bn worth of Japanese government bonds and ¥161 bn worth of equities, suggesting that there is still appetite for Japanese assets. GDP for the Q2 in the U.K. rose by 0.9%(q/q) and by 3.7%(annualized). This was the fastest pace since 2000. The expansion, for the first time in several years, was broad-based, with all principal sectors of the economy making robust gains. The robust GDP data reinforced expectations that the BoE will indeed, hike rates again in August.  However it was not enough to prevent the Pound from ceding ground to the greenback. Sterling fell to 1.8333 from 1.8430 yesterday. The BoC's monetary policy report update noted that the faster than expected economic growth recently had been spurred by low interest rates. This clear shift to a tightening bias is just what the market was looking for, especially after the BoC left rates on hold at Tuesday’s meeting. The report did outline possible risk factors stemming from global trade issues and inflation as being on their “worry list”. But on balance, the report point to a tightening cycle which we view beginning in September. As such, higher rates in Canada will help support the loonie going forward as commodity prices continue to ease.  The currency is currently trading at 1.3203. Forex Technicals:   -      EUR/USD  -    Support which was expected at 1.2230 failed, causing the single currency to plummet further. It has been to as low as 1.2163 so far. The break of 1.2200 is significant, as the technical situation now opens the possibility of even larger declines to 1.1950 - 1.1900. While the bad news is not yet a given,  we will assume the worst if the currency fails to get a lift above 1.2100. But it may find support there and rise back to 1.2250 thereafter. -     GBP/USD  -    the recovery failed at the swing level, and the currency may fall further to 1.8300 - 1.8270 area today-  expect a rally back to at least 1.8420 thereafter.  Sterling's technical condition is a world better than euro's,  but provision has to be made to weather this upsurge in the greenback. We will be focused on the euro's performance today, and would fine-tune Cable's  outlook accordingly. -     USD/JPY -   the currency's  support at 109.30 provided impetus for another 110.30 test. The rally may extend further one more time, probably towards 111.00. But we still see this as a bear market rally nevertheless,  in which case, the reprieve to the U.S. dollar is temporary and will likely be brief The downtrend should resume soon, with the 107.60 baseline as next target. -    USD/CHF  -    the currency extended gains to 1.2580 anew, and may rise further -- the natural target is the area of 1.2700 -1.2775. This not yet a given however -- although breach of 1.2600 would take away most of the resistance to the upmove. On balance, the break of 1.2600 will probably occur and usher in the dollar higher. -     USD/CAD  --   the currency pair is poised to go higher and retest the 1.3270 top. The ascent should be slower, reflecting better fundamentals backing the loonie,  but the greenback's surge should be side-stepped.  We will re-assess early next week.   -     AUD/USD  -     the currency found no new support at .7100, and may drift lower further to .7050 before meeting big-enough demand. There should be a recovery to at least the area of .7150 thereafter.  We review the bigger view on Monday. -     NZD/USD  -    the currency did not find any new support at .6370and may extend the sell-off to .6320 - .6300. Expect a recovery to .6400 area thereafter. We reassess next week. -     EUR/JPY  -     support failed at 134.10, as the cross will probably retest the 133.50 base. Expect a recovery to 134.50 thereafter. -     EUR/CHF  -   no change in view --  the uptrend should find support near 1.5275.   The uptrend follows through the 1.5370 top thereafter, and the  next rally should propel the cross through 1.5350 to 1.5430 further out.  Any rally above 1.5450 suggests that the long bear market is over. -    EUR/GBP  -    the cross did fall further to .6630and will likely fall further towards the .6600 - .6590 area next week.  The recovery should continue from there. News, data, references and commentaries compiled from Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, CBSMarketWatch, Briefing.com, and Economy.com Euro/US Dollar (1.2118) -  06:37 GMT, Jul 26, 2004       欧元美元(EUR/USD)：1.2230支持失守，导致欧元周五垂直走低到1.2090。一定程度上的支持可能出现，并可能回升到1.2170。但下跌可能并未结束，技术分析已经有了更大幅下跌到1.2000－1.1950的可能。虽然这个坏消息还不确定，但假如欧元在今天晚些时候不能走高到1.2190之上我们将以最差的情况对待。 Recommendations: Stand aside. British Pound/US Dollar (1.8352) -  06:37 GMT, Jul 26, 2004    英镑美元（GBP/USD）：真的下跌到1.8300并可能回升到1.8430 - 1.8450。但是我们不得不对此后进一步下跌到1.8270 - 1.8250的情况进行防范。不利消息仅仅只是使得英镑与欧元保持了一致。假如期待中的回升走到1.8500阻力并突破，情况将发生改变。英镑此后可能再次下跌，但仅仅只是测试低点并在此后酝酿一波新的升势。 Recommendations: Long GBP position from 1.8417 was closed at 1.8312 stop-loss. Stand aside. US Dollar/Japanese Yen (109.68) -  06:38 GMT, Jul 26, 2004    美元日元（USD/JPY ）：再次测试110.30失败，这可能导致回撤到109.30支持水平。不过，可能对上边界进行多次的测试并进一步上升到111.00。但我们依然把这看作是熊市中的上升，在这种情况下，对美元的缓刑只是暂时的并且很快将结束。下降趋势应很快重拾，下次下降的目标在107.60 Recommendations: Stand aside. US Dollar/Swiss Franc (1.2643) -  06:38 GMT, Jul 26, 2004    美元瑞朗（USD/CHF）：美汇瑞朗进一步走高到1.2582，但可能回调到1.2580 - 1.2550。由于这是一个上升序列所以可能还会有更多的上扬，接下来可能一路走到1.2750 - 1.2775。 不过这都还不确定——当然首先必须要突破1.2700阻力。此后我们预计熊市将重拾。 Recommendations: Short USD position from 1.2504 was closed at 1.2684 stop-loss. Stand aside. US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (1.3204) -  06:38 GMT, Jul 26, 2004    美元加元（USD/CAD ）：看法不变——美汇加元依然平稳走高，再次测试1.3270顶部并进行到1.3300 - 1.3325。此后的下跌可能非常迅速，本周晚些时候良好的基本面将反应到市场上。 Recommendations: Sold USD at 1.3167. Move stop-loss from 1.3285 to 1.3310. Keep profit target at 1.2700. Australian Dollar/US Dollar (0.7100) -  06:40 GMT, Jul 26, 2004    澳元美元（AUD/USD）：澳元在.7070找到新的支持，应至少反弹到.7160。甚至可能回升到.7180 - .7200——在这种情况下，此后的任何下跌都能在底部守住。此后一波新的牛市行情即将开始。 Recommendations: Bought AUD at 0.7123. Move stop-loss from 0.7070 to 0.7020. Keep profit target at 0.7500. NZ Dollar/US Dollar (0.6374) -  06:39 GMT, Jul 26, 2004    纽元美元（NZD/USD）：纽元在.6535找到新的支持但此后回撤到.6405。可能会进一步反弹走高到.6440/50。此后可能再次下跌，重新测试.6330底部。 Recommendations: Stand aside. Euro/Japanese Yen (132.98) -  06:40 GMT, Jul 26, 2004    欧元日元（EUR/JPY）： 133.50低点失守，在小幅上扬到133.50后进一步下跌到132.70 - 132.50。预计此后将至少回撤到134.50区间。 Recommendations: Long EUR position from 134.34 was closed at 133.08 stop-loss. Stand aside. Euro/Swiss Franc (1.5322) -  06:40 GMT, Jul 26, 2004    欧元瑞朗（EUR/CHF）：升势在1.5285找到支持。升势可能继续走高到1.5370顶部——观点不变。进行中的升势应推动汇价进一步穿越1.5370走高到1.5450。任何1.5450之上的升势都表明长期熊市的结束，并将锁定1.5860顶部目标。 Recommendations: Stand aside. Euro/British Pound (0.6603) -  06:41 GMT, Jul 26, 2004    欧元英镑（EUR/GBP）：真的进一步下跌到.6600但可能回升到.6620 - .6630。此后可能进一步跌到.6850，此后将发生反转，上升目标再次锁定.6820。 Recommendations: Bought EUR at 0.6646. Move stop-loss from 0.6610 to 0.6580. Move profit target from 0.6840 to 0.6850. British Pound/Japanese Yen (201.27) -  06:42 GMT, Jul 26, 2004    英镑日元（GBP/JPY）：看法不变——升势应该在201.00找到支持，然后开始上涨——新的上升循环将运行到205.00甚至可能进一步运行到208.00。 Recommendations: Long GBP position from 202.30 was closed at 201.38 stop-loss. Stand aside. British Pound/Swiss Franc (2.3194) -  06:42 GMT, Jul 26, 2004    英镑瑞朗（GBP/CHF）：突破2.3060顶部一度走高到2.3230。行情继续看好，并可能再次以2.3250阻力为目标。 Recommendations: Bought GBP at 2.2933. Move stop-loss from 2.2860 to 2.2920. Keep profit target at 2.3250.

	saxo bank，我以前常看，不是很好