路透分析美元止涨的基本面(原文转载)

	Reuters FOREX-Dollar gains as market weighs war, economy Thursday April 3, 12:54 pm ET By Javier David NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - The dollar advanced on Thursday, underpinned by hopes for a quick resolution to the war against Iraq but with its gains constrained by renewed signs of weakness in the economy. While dispatches from the front are determining the dollar's near-term fate, weak U.S. data is also preventing the U.S. currency from extending its gains. On Thursday, poor readings on U.S. jobless claims and the service sector dampened the market's buying enthusiasm. "The dollar has risks on both sides," said Chris Melendez, president of Tempest Asset Management in California. He said the U.S. currency was susceptible to both bad headlines on the war and further softening of the economy. At the same time, he added, "We don't know what kind of surprises can come out of Baghdad, whether it's biological or chemical weapons. This is like urban warfare, and it's going to be difficult to get things cleaned up in a reasonable amount of time." In choppy afternoon trade, the euro was around $1.0730(EUR=), above its worst levels of the day beneath $1.07 but still 0.32 percent lower on the day. The single currency showed little reaction to the widely expected decision by the European Central Bank to keep interest rates steady. Against Japan's currency, the dollar bought 119.53 yen(JPY=), up 0.52 percent on the day and nearly 2 units above a two-week low set earlier in the week when a swift victory in Iraq seemed less assured to markets. The dollar pared gains against the Swiss franc, trading near 1.3815 francs(CHF=), and slipped against sterling to $1.5670(GBP=). FUNDAMENTALS SHROUDED BY WAR Patriotic buying of U.S. stocks and the dollar subsided after the government reported that initial jobless claims shot to 445,000 last week, up 38,000 from the prior week and at the highest level in nearly a year. Meanwhile, the service sector unexpectedly shrank in March for the first time in more than a year. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of non-manufacturing activity fell to 47.9 -- the lowest reading since October 2001 -- from 53.9 in February. "Investors continue to focus on perceptions of how long or short or successful the war in Iraq will be," said Rebecca Patterson, currency strategist at J.P. Morgan in New York. "Economic data is not ... being traded on, but it's not being ignored." In Europe, the ECB held euro zone benchmark interest rates steady at 2.50 percent. The central bank expressed reluctance to ease monetary policy until it could fully assess the impact of the Iraq war on the 12-nation bloc's economic outlook. ECB President Wim Duisenberg said because the implications of the war remained unclear, it would be best for the central bank to err on the side of caution. But with the euro zone economy looking increasingly precarious, analysts see a mounting case for a rate cut. "... If there's no progress on the economic front in the euro zone or the war front in Iraq next month, we would expect the ECB to cut by 25 basis points in May," wrote Anne Parker-Mills, senior U.S. economist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, in a research note to clients. BAGHDAD OR BUST The shift in sentiment, which strengthened on Thursday, came after U.S. troops gathered south of Baghdad, preparing to attack Iraqi forces and seize the city's airport. Markets, eager for signs of a potential end to the fighting, took the advance as showing the war could be entering a decisive phase. But analysts say the dollar's rally was vulnerable to reversal as markets remain wary of making large bets while the war rages. One event that could undercut the greenback could be the use of chemical or biological weapons by Iraqi troops.

	实际上 伊拉克战争离决定性的阶段可能还有一段时间 而且美国经济基本面也不好 美元的涨势看来真的很脆弱