美元的总攻已经展开！

	英文（路透社新闻，纽约1月16日早上10点）大意： 受强劲经济数据刺激，美元大幅上涨。11月外国购买美元资产876亿美元，大大高出10月的修正值278亿！（译者：早已有人偷偷在美元底位买入了大量美元！）。密西根大学消费信心指数从12月的92.6飙升到1月的103.2。 NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar rose steeply against most major currencies on Friday, boosted by robust economic data that seemed to confirm a more vigorous U.S. recovery. Net foreign purchases of U.S. assets jumped to $87.6 billion in November, sharply higher than a revised $27.8 billion in October. "Total (dollar) positive reaction to the flows data. It was almost instantaneous. The private accounts showed a big turnaround," said Grant Wilson, vice president at Mellon Bank in Pittsburgh. "This more than covers the huge (current account) deficit that we run because this is such a huge number. This is very, very dollar positive," he said. By midmorning New York trade, the euro was trading at $1.2432 (EUR=: Quote, Profile, Research) , off more than 1 percent, and close to 5 cents from Monday's record highs around $1.29. The euro fell more than 1 percent against the yen to 131.76 (EURJPY=: Quote, Profile, Research) , near the day's low. But the dollar was 0.3 percent down at 106.01 yen (JPY=: Quote, Profile, Research) , having hit a low around 105.70 before being turned back by suspected Bank of Japan intervention. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar rose over 1 percent to 1.2608 francs (CHF=: Quote, Profile, Research) . Sterling fell to $1.8056 (GBP=: Quote, Profile, Research) , off 0.8 percent on the day. Even a lower than expected increase in U.S. industrial production did not dent the dollar's rally. Industrial production rose a 0.1 percent, while the percentage of firms' capacity in use was steady at 75.8 percent. U.S. business inventories rose 0.3 percent in November after a 0.4 percent increase the previous month, indicating a pickup in economic activity. A University of Michigan preliminary survey on consumer sentiment came in at 103.2 in January, compared with December's final reading of 92.6. The median forecast had called for 94.0. This was the highest reading since November 2002. "That figure certainly helps the ECB's (European Central Bank) cause, and they wouldn't mind a rapid fall in the euro. They're sitting there and saying 'Keep going, keep going'," said Brian Taylor, head forex trader at Manufacturers and Traders Bank This week's barrage of comments from euro zone officials expressing concern about the surging single European currency showed no signs of abating on Friday. ECB chief economist Otmar Issing launched Friday's offensive, which added to downward pressure on the euro, saying the central bank was not indifferent to the euro's strength. Issing's comments and those of other European officials this week fueled speculation that the ECB could cut rates at its next meeting in February to stem the euro's climb, analysts said. "There's a sudden shift in attitude in the sense that there is greater acceptance that the dollar is going to have a correction partly because of what may or may not happen at the G7 meeting," said Mike Malpede, senior foreign exchange analyst at Refco Group Ltd in Chicago. Central bankers and finance ministers of the world's seven major industrialized nations are due to meet in early February in Florida. "My bias is nothing on the macro backdrop has changed for the dollar that much. This a question of how much we can run at the threat of verbal intervention or an ECB rate cut," he added. Previous  1| 2 [ Last edited by liuzhehui on 2004-1-17 at 01:12 AM ]

	[quote]Originally posted by hdbg001 at 2004-1-17 01:20: 总攻？这周不都是吗？目标位置？ [/quot 目标位置是不确定的，future有很多不确定，你只要顺势而为即可，直到哪天你的利润开始受损，平一部分，再受损再平一部分，直到空仓准备翻多。

	预先设底或顶太害人！前期不是高喊EUR要上1.3, 1.33, 1.4吗？这次不又是一次教训？ 记住：汇价跌出长期上涨下轨要卖出！我发贴提醒EUR长期上涨下轨被两破、且做头部！ 看日K线，过去3年EUR7次做顶，有6次做M或三重顶，仅一次做单峰顶。今日又做单峰顶，也就在今日EUR跌破做M或三重顶的价位1.2559，一泻千里，具有被总攻的特点。所以说今日总攻开始。过去几日仅是小战斗，仅是序曲！ [ Last edited by liuzhehui on 2004-1-17 at 01:49 AM ]

	《投机智慧》中有个人专门在人们疯狂的时候进场卖空。开始大家还在说突破1.2500过了两天就看到1.27了，又过了两天1.29了，再有说会到1.3，甚至1.35，人人都在买非美人人都在赚钱，危险也就随之而来。

	11月外国购买美元资产876亿美元，大大高出10月的修正值278亿！12月外国购买美元资产可能更多！我认为这是今日多数非美暴跌的根本原因。

	en 这个的影响要远大于那个财长所的话，好像前不久香港市场也是政府抛出大量港币稳定汇率防止港币升值，而且这期《财经》还说了很多亚洲国家存的美元比以前多了很多以回避金融风险。基本面也支持美元走强呀。不过行情分析也是要看的。 [ Last edited by meibanfa on 2004-1-17 at 02:10 AM ]

	没错，说明庄家已经偷偷的改变策略了，多头们觉得自己上当受骗了，所以才引起今天的恐慌。

	尽管我不是个事后分析原因的人，但是这次却让我深化了还是要分析基本面的变化，供求关系发生了改变才是真正的原因，机构主力也不能跟市场做对。   “。。。都在一块一毛九卖空小麦，还有很多小麦也运到欧洲去了，小麦存量越来越少了价格一旦突破一块一毛九。。。。”《股票作手回忆录》中的一段，市场不断的印证该书的观念。