英文汇评

	USD Rises Except Against Relentless Aussie by Ashraf Laidi Central bankers vigilant but confident The dollar bounced off its Friday lows on increasing signs of concerns from central bankers and politicians regarding the speedy declines in the value of the dollar against the euro and the yen. Once again ECB Chief Jean-Claude Trichet stole markets' attention after sounding off a touch of a concern over the rising euro. Mr. Trichet said central bankers were "concerned" but "not indifferent" at the Bank of International Settlements retreat for G-10 central banks. Bank of Japan Chief Toshihiko Fukui later echoed his European counterpart's comments by saying central bankers were concerned but not in a panic. Fukui did add that the dollar's decline versus the yen and the euro was a little bit fast. French PM Raffarrin also sounded off a note of concern, after his Finance minister Mer indicating his desire that G7 nations will aim at stabilizing currency rates at next month's G7 meeting in Florida. Trichet's comment pulls down euro by a cent The euro lost a full cent by Trichet's words of vigilance regarding the euro's significant rise against the dollar. After having said last week that rising global demand would offset the negative impact of a rising currency on European exports, Trichet appeared more concerned, albeit cautiously so. Although currencies were not a formal topic of discussion at the BIS, the new rhetoric signals a clear but gradual shift of by the world's central bankers regarding the dollar's slide. It is a matter of time before words of concern are translated into a broader and more aggressive jawboning. EURUSD fell to a 1.2764 low. Support starts at 1.2710, backed by 1.2670 and 1.2640. Key support remains holding at 1.2580-85, which is the 2-month old trendline starting from the 1.1375 low. Upside capped at 1.2825-30, followed by 1.2865-70 and 1.2890-00. Subsequent pressure seen imposed at 1.2930 and 1.2960-65. Aussie bucks trend and hits new 6 year highs near 80 cent In a blatant shrugging of the order of the day, the Aussie knocked off its US counterpart to fresh 6 year lows at 0.7799. Aussie's 425-bp advantage relative to the US dollar is mainly attributed to the soaring AUDUSD rate, which rose 34% last year. Despite the current yield advantage, the Reserve Bank of Australia is set to tighten rates by another 25 bps when it meets next month to cool down a relentless housing market and highly leveraged personal demand. AUD's next stop is seen at 80 cents, with further gains beyond that point remaining in the pipeline as long as expectations further rate hikes loom large. Resistance targets seen at 80.20 and 80.50. Support starts at 77.40 followed by 77.10 and 76.60. Fukui echoes Trichet's concern Relative Stability returned to the USDJPY after at least 2 interventions were mounted last week by the Bank of Japan to stem further declines in the pair. BoJ Governor Fukui joined his ECB counterpart Trichet today in painting the initial shades of concern with the dollar's slide against the euro and the yen, which he described as "a little bit too fast". While most interventionist remarks by Japanese officials have emerged from the Finance ministry, such remarks are relatively uncommon on the central bank level. This is especially so when the Japanese central bank governor is known to preserve the central bank's strong yen stance. USDJPY faces initial resistance at 106.70 to be followed by 107 and 107.60. Key resistance follows at 108-the 38% retracement of the 111.47-105.89 drop. Support starts at 106.30 backed by the falling trend line target of 106, extending from October's 108.26 low. The key foundation remains at 105.50-- the 61.8% retracement of the 147.62-79.79 move. Absence of intervention could prompt the yen to the 105 figure, below which support comes in at 104.60. CAD backtracks CAD ended lower today on the general rebound in the greenback. Canadian Finance Minister Ralph Goodale kept up the line of concern with the rising dollar adopted by the central bank, describing the currency rise as an economic challenge that could hit corporate profits. Last Friday, the Bank of Canada said it continued to scrutinize the extent to which the appreciating Canadian dollar will curtail demand for Canadian exports. But currency strength could persist in Canada in the event that improved economic data reduce changes of an interest rate cut next month as was the case in Friday's strong employment data. The report once again showed a vigorous employment report from Canada contrasting with a disheartening jobs report from the US as the former showed a 53,1000 rise in jobs in December, overshooting forecasts of 20,000 increase. The unemployment rate fell from 7.5% to 7.4%. The strong report eases expectations of an interest rate cut this month. Nonetheless, a Reuters survey finds that 6 out of 13 Canadian Treasury dealers expect the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 bps, with the rest seeing no change. But USDCAD capitalized on overall strength in the greenback, adding nearly a full cent to the 1.2760s. Resistance starts at 1.2790s followed by 1.2830. Support starts at 1.2720, backed by 1.2680, 1.2660 and 1.26. Cable eases back, but EURGBP hits fresh 2-month lows Cable finally pulled back, losing over a full cent to reach $1.8450s, but sterling continued to hammer the euro to drag the single currency to a 2 month low. Sterling's continued appreciation versus the euro offers the ECB with some breathing room, offsetting the euro's rise against the dollar. Yet, despite the pound's aggressive ascent against both currencies, the Bank of England remains silent, showing none of the concerns exhibited by the ECB or the BoJ. Cable faces preliminary support at $1.8440, followed by 1.84-the 38.2% retracement of the 1.81-1.8576 rise. Subsequent losses seen tempered at 1.8370 and 1.8320. Renewed bullishness seen coming up at the break of $1.8520, which could pave the way for 1.8570.

	European Forex Trading Preview by Korman Tam At 2:00 AM Germany December WPI m/m (exp n/f, prev -0.1%) Germany December WPI y/y (exp n/f, prev 1.5%) At 2:45 AM France November Trade Balance (exp 0.5 bln euros, prev 0.33 bln euros) France December HICP preliminary m/m (exp 0.1%, prev 0.1%) France December HICP preliminary y/y (exp 2.35%, prev 2.5%) At 2:50 AM France November industrial production m/m (exp 0.1%, prev 1.3%) France November industrial production y/y (exp 1.1%, prev 0.9%) At 4:30 AM UK November industrial production m/m (exp 0.3%, prev 1.0%) UK November industrial production y/y (exp 1.9%, prev 2.4%) The dollar gave back earlier gains against the European majors, retreating off its session high against the euro of 1.2720 to now sit at 1.2760. Meanwhile, shortly after the New York session close, US Treasury spokesman Robert Nichols reiterated that there had been no change to the strong dollar policy. He also stressed that the Bush administration does not comment on market movements. Euro recovers from early sell-off The single currency recovered from its sell-off in early Tokyo trading, which had sent it to 1.2720 against the greenback. In yesterday's session, the euro plummeted following comments from ECB President Trichet, in which he expressed concern over the currency's strength. The euro has since clawed its way back and stands at 1.2760. Resistance begins at 1.28, backed by 1.2825 and 1.2880. Subsequent ceilings are seen at 1.29, followed by 1.2930 and 1.2960. Meanwhile, losses will find floors at 1.2720, backed by 1.27 and 1.2660. A breach below will encounter floors at 1.2620 and 1.26. EURJPY recouped losses back toward the 136-mark. Additional gains will target 136.30, followed by 136.65 and 137. Subsequent ceilings are seen at 137.20, followed by 137.80 and 138. Support begins at 135.50, backed by 135 and 134.80. A move lower will target 134.25 and 134. Cable Cable jumped higher in early Tuesday trading, rising to 1.8470. Further gains will face resistance at 1.85, followed by 1.8525 and 1.8550. Additional ceilings will emerge at 1.8580 and 1.86. Support is seen at 1.8450, backed by 1.84 and 1.8360. Subsequent floors are seen at 1.8320, backed by 1.83 and 1.8270. USDJPY remains confined in range Japanese government officials reiterated their displeasure with currency levels. The MoF's vice finance minister of international affairs, Zembei Mizoguchi said that volatility and overshooting in the forex markets were inappropriate and stressed that the government would take appropriate action if necessary. Meanwhile, FinMin Sadakazu Tanigaki echoed a similar message saying that recent forex moves were rapid given US economic fundamentals. Lastly, he said that Japan would take steps against speculative forex moves. USDJPY hovers near 106.50 heading into the European session. Interim resistance starts at 107, backed by 107.40 and 108. A breach above will target 108.25 and 108.50. Losses will encounter support at 106.40, backed by 106 and 105.75. Subsequent floors are eyed at 105.50, backed by 105.30 and 105. USDCHF The pair failed to break above the 1.23-handle, and has since drifted to 1.2260. Support is seen at 1.22 and 1.2130. A breach below will target 1.2050 and 1.20. Gains will target resistance at 1.23, followed by 1.2340 and 1.24. Subsequent ceilings will emerge at 1.2460, followed by 1.25 and 1.2560. AUDUSD Interim resistance is seen at 0.78 and 0.7820. A breach above will target 0.7850, backed by 0.7880 and 0.79. Losses will target support at 0.7720, followed by 0.77 and 0.7675. Subsequent floors will emerge at 0.7625, backed by 0.76 and 0.7580.

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