11 - 20 汇市的评述和日元，欧元，英镑的展望 （英文， 附带简译）

	November 20, 5:00 PM: EUR/$..1.1908 $/JPY..109 GBP/$..1.7042 $/CHF..1.2991 AUD/$..0.7215 $/CAD..1.3022 Dollar Fails to Rise Above Volatility by Ashraf Laidi Mixed Data and False White House Alert Dollar selling was once again the order of the day on a combination of geopolitical fears and uninspiring economic data. Although the dollar was relatively unfazed by the explosions in Turkey earlier this morning, the currency was temporarily hit by news reports that the White House had been evacuated after a blip on the radar was mistaken for a plane violating US Airspace. The dollar recovered all of those immediate losses but failed to end on a higher note. Mixed news in US labor markets as the number of weekly jobless fell by a whopping 15,000 to 355,000. The more stable 4-week average fell to 367,250,hitting its lowest level since February 2001, a month before the official beginning of the 2001 recession. The leading indicators index rose 0.4% in October, more than the 0.2% consensus forecast. 7 of the index' 10 components showed an increase, while declines were posted in the money supply, capital goods orders and consumer goods orders. The Philadelphia Fed's survey of manufacturing sentiment fell to 25.9 in October from 28 the prior month, indicating prevailing optimism amid manufacturers, albeit at a declining pace. This is the survey's 4th consecutive month above zero. The survey's six-month outlook rose to 63.4 from 55.5. The employment components of the survey proved mixed as the number of employees fell to 21.6 from 33.3 while the average workweek rose by 5.1 to 16.2 Yen Allows Dollar to Gain The dollar ended a little lower against the Japanese currency from yesterday's close but managed to claw back some gains in NY Trade above the 108.70 level. USDJOY traders did not give the greenback the same treatment seen against other currencies after MoF sources reiterated the possibility to selling foreign bonds in order to finance currency interventions. Wednesday's intervention was proved to be another stark example of the central bank's insistence to stabilize any excessive strength in its currency despite declarations from the international community (G7) to do otherwise. Repetitive central bank action at the 108-yen could provide traders with a recurring opportunity since the level increasingly appears to be a key dollar support. USDJPY support seen at 108.40, backed by 107.85-90 and 107.45. Preliminary resistance held at 109.35-40, followed by 109.75-80 and 110.35-40. EURUSD Retreats on Misreported Radar Blip, Awaits Ecofin The euro struggled on news of the explosion in Turkey, which resulted into the death of over 20 persons. The US dollar was steadfast on the news, which sent European markets stocks in a tailspin. But the medium-term euro focus reverted to the spat over the stability pact （欧元区的“发展和稳定协定”）, over which Berlin plans a proposal to the EU next week. The proposal will entail Germany's plans to control its domestic finances and stabilize its rising budget deficit, which has breached（法律上常用语 --- 破坏或违反） above the EU's maximum level of 3% of GDP for 3 years. But some market participants worry that the plan will be rejected by the EU in which case would be an embarrassing occurrence for the country that once championed the stability pact's budget rules. Separately, the president of the European Association of Chambers of Commerce and Industry warned of the impact of the rising euro on regional growth, demanding the European Central Bank to carry out a more growth-oriented policy approach. As With the pace of the euro's ascendance simultaneously with the ongoing silence from European officials, it's just a matter of time before traders test the psychologically material level of $1.20. Recall that ECB Chief Duisenberg did hint last month that the bank's tolerance level stood around $1.21 given no change in the economic conditions. French Fin Min Mer, however, played down the impact of the current euro strength, saying the economy was in a recovery mode and that the government could always implement appropriate fiscal measures. EURUSD faces resistance at $1.1920 followed by 1.1970 and 1.20. A breach（这里是指：突破） above this level sees pressure at 1.2030 and 1.2070. Preliminary support seen at 1.1870-75, followed by 1.1820 and 1.1775. Subsequent support held at 1.1730 backed by 1.1720. Cable Hits Fresh 5-year High, Shrugging Attack It had been a while since the British pound had not risen on geopolitical troubles as it today, when it rallied following the explosion in Turkey and the false alert in the White House. Although 2 of the 4 blasts in Turkey targeted British Bank HSBC and the British Consulate, the currency rebounded quickly Sterling ended little changed against the dollar during the US session after a full-cent decline in European trade prompted by the Bank of Japan action to buy dollars. Balanced comments from BoE Chief Mervyn King and MPC member Kate Barker failed to give traders any cogent clarity on the central bank's incoming policy moves. Mr. King said spoke of the need to remain vigilant against rising domestic demand and inflation while indicating the slowdown in the growth rate of personal debt. Ms Barker left matters open by saying the MPC's actions were done on a monthly basis and suggesting that a rate hike in November did not necessarily imply another tightening the following month. Cable shot up to a fresh 5-year high at $17086 before retreating by nearly half a cent. Renewed buying seen facing resistance at 1.7075, 1.71 and 1.7145. Support held at 1.7010, 1.6945-50. Further losses seen supported at 1.6880 and 1.6820. [ Last edited by sharkeater on 2003-11-21 at 02:26 PM ]

	没有时间为多数人翻译， 简译如下： 大致含义是，周四，良好的美国经济数据混杂着恐怖袭击和白宫的假警报，使得整天各货币在波动区域里运行。 唯独英镑在克服了英国机构在恐怖袭击中受创的不利消息，创了新高。 此外，美元对日元有非常小的幅度上涨。 作者有这样的倾向并发出了这些信息： 咋天美国的经济数据反映的前景不错，美元应该上涨一点， 但是没有能够有所获，主要是这些地缘政治的不利消息和谣言。 欧元没有从中获利，主要在同时，有一些从欧元区内部发出和欧元上行气氛不协调的声音， 此外，隐含了欧元区发展和稳定协定中预算限制受到挑战和质疑的信息。  并特地指出了这些不协调的声音，是在市场磨掌霍霍准备测试1。20时发出的。

	谢谢

	真了不起！

	沙版,我入行时间很短,但是,从你那里学到了很多,非常感激. 对不起,不知改问不该问:记得你说过,搞了二十年宏观政治经济学.但,你学的是材料和能源科学?

	谢鲨版！