今天最后的基本面

	美国费城联储7月制造业新订单指数升至10.5 美国费城联储7月制造业展望指数为6个月来最高水平 费城联储7月制造业展望指数升至8.3 费城联储7月新订单指数为8个月来首次为正，6月为-0.5 但是很多美国公司的季度收益不好: INTEL, MICROSOFT, MOTOROLA,等都收益下降. DOW指数下跌25点.

	Originally posted by wtuiqpl at 2003-7-18 12:21 AM: 市场现在还在等什么～～怎么都不动了～～ 这是一个典型的"既成事实"的案例. 市场在数据出来以前,就对数据有比较乐观的预测, 所以刺激很多短线的美元买入, 今天从1250下跌到1162的幅度已经包含了这样的预期. 结果出来后,基本符合预期,这时候买的人已经买了,所以买家不多,就开始横盘了. 市场的价格是对预期的反映,市场对既成事实没有看空欧元的兴趣.

	那现在进偶员是不是还没到时候啊？

	不是关键支持点,现在进不是好时机.

	Originally posted by tigerbite at 2003-7-18 00:40: 不是关键支持点,现在进不是好时机. 谢谢斑竹！我虽忍不住在1。114挂了实盘单（挂底点碰运气，已含点差），但估计到不了，中行3：00am就收市了，若没成交也自动撤单了。。。 不管它了， 睡觉去。。。 各位晚安，斑竹晚安！

	虎版主,不是这样的,市场最乐观的预期是费城制造业民展望指数为12,但事实只有8.3. 所以投资者觉得很失望.以至于刚才欧元的反弹!!

	Originally posted by 我是新手 at 2003-7-18 12:59 AM: 虎版主,不是这样的,市场最乐观的预期是费城制造业民展望指数为12,但事实只有8.3. 所以投资者觉得很失望.以至于刚才欧元的反弹!! 市场预期费城联储7月制造业展望指数升至7,不是12 [引路透社] "The market is also anticipating the release of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey at noon (1600 GMT), seen as an indicator for the nationwide Institute for Supply Management survey. The Philadelphia Fed survey is expected to read 7.0 in July, up from 4.0 in June." "The closely-watched Philly Fed survey, the first major manufacturing indicator for July, was at 8.3 versus the median forecast of 7.0 and June's 4.0." (Additional reporting by John Parry) 欧元的反弹是因为公司收益不好. 另外失业人数虽然较上月有好转,但是仍然在40万以上,市场认为是经纪复苏的绊脚石. [ Last edited by tigerbite on 2003-7-18 at 01:19 AM ]

	Originally posted by wtuiqpl at 2003-7-18 12:45 AM: 现在可否介入日元～～～ 我认为日员短线在119附近有阻力,现在买入的时机不好.

	路透社文章透露有中东欧元买家正在准备再次买入欧元. 请看下列报道(英文): Financial News Reuters Mideast accounts help drive euro's rise and fall Thursday July 17, 12:37 pm ET By John Parry NEW YORK, July 17 (Reuters) - Some currency strategists think a fresh bout of Middle Eastern euro buying may bolster the single currency anew following profit-taking by investors in the region who had pushed the unit to record peaks in May. ADVERTISEMENT "Since late last year they have been making a gradual shift into the euro," switching part of their foreign exchange reserves out of U.S. dollars and into the single currency, said Chris Melendez, chief executive officer of U.S.-based hedge fund Tempest Asset Management. According to some analysts, Middle Eastern sales of dollars and preference for euros reflected disenchantment with U.S. foreign policy in the wake of the U.S.-led war in Iraq, but this has since abated. When the euro broke above $1.17 in May, Middle Eastern accounts "were very active buyers up to $1.1930," but then dropped their bid for the single currency, Melendez said. PACKING A PUNCH Saudi Arabian and other Middle Eastern investors pack a punch in currency markets that is disproportionate at times to the thin slice of global foreign exchange reserves they hold. Asian central banks have the lion's share of global foreign exchange reserves with some 60 per cent, while Middle Eastern central banks have just 6 percent, according to Paresh Upadhyaya, currency analyst with Putnam Investments in Boston. As the dollar started to fall in early 2002, many central banks increased their exposure to higher-yielding currencies. "Central banks around the world have reduced their U.S. dollar exposure and increased it notably to the euro, and to the Australian and Canadian dollars," Upadhyaya said. Just what portion of this move comprised Middle Eastern central banks is hard to quantify, often making hearsay a catalyst for currency market movements. "It's really anecdotal that there was this solid bid for the euro in the run up and then (Middle Eastern accounts) seemed to step aside," said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4Cast in New York. The euro hit record highs against the dollar (EUR=) around $1.1930 in late May, but has since relapsed some 6 percent to trade below $1.12. Data from the U.S. Treasury, released with a six-week delay, show Middle East names made net sales of $1.2 billion of U.S. government debt in May, way below net sales of $2.6 billion in April. Activity in June, which spans much of the euro's recent retreat, for now remains mostly a mystery. To gauge how Middle Eastern accounts are positioned, currency traders tend to seize on scraps of information about flows from hedge funds and occasional comments by officials. By the time the euro had descended to near $1.16 in late June, comments by Saudi central banker Hamad Saud Al-Sayari that the dollar's decline was likely bottoming out sent other market participants intensifying their euro sales, betting that Middle Eastern appetites for the single currency were waning. "People started to feel that perhaps the Saudi-United States relationship was warming up," and that Saudi Arabia now had more interest in holding dollars again, Ruskin said. Currency markets responded to the general perception that following suicide bombings in Riyadh in May, the Saudi authorities were cooperating closely with the United States in efforts to track down Al Qaeda operatives, Ruskin said. In a more recent twist, these investors are now waiting to see if the euro descends to around $1.10 in order to buy again as a trading opportunity, Melendez said. Some traders have seen sporadic signs of Middle Eastern interest for euros returning. Last week, some of these investors were selling euros around $1.14 but bidding for euros at $1.13, said Thomas Molloy, a trader at Bank Leumi in New York. "I think there is a lot of reserve shifting (into euros) to come. It's about half done," Melendez said.

	虎版主,欧元现价是否获利卖出呢?