???????????????????

	???±?????????÷???????ú?????°?°????? ???????°?°????? ???????°?°????? ×??????????????????????°×??ó????????????·?±?????,PE??·????í,?????????í???????ò????×?. ??????????????????????????????????,×??÷?????????±?±?????????????????·??????????±???????????±???????????????????????????????×?????????±????????±?±??????????·?±??????¨???????????°?ù?ó??±?·ù??·????????±?°????????????·????±????????????

	??????????°???·????? ?????????ì??????

	·?????????·??????Y?c?L?U ?v?????????????ú?¨now?”???¨?????÷?????? ×÷?é???H金???????????????u?u×?????????識?????úów?????????????????Y???????????????????Y??±?í?????(1)???H???°??(2)·?????力???°(3)??立???????????????Y??‘??o?????Y?????????ó???t?? (1) ?àêP?? ???r?c??????êP?S??±??ì?????”???r????????????…R?r便?????????à·????”???r????????????…R?r便???????????????”?????????r????ów???r?????????ò?????{?????ú?????¨?????????p?????^???????????¨?????è?????????????ú???????M?÷?§????利率????利ì??ü?????I?????°???ú???”?????????ú?ò????????????????×????d?ú???????????????????ò???ì???? (2) ?????? ?F?r?????Y?????}?s?à×??????Y??±?í?了?????????F?????????ò?°???°í‘??·???×÷?????Y?Q?¨??例????ì?????年?????????ì??·???????°?·??????????r??±?惡劣?ì????‰???令?ó???§??????·????Y???A???ó???r?????S??‘??p???????????ò?????Yì??ó?????à???Y?????ó???r??…s?????ú?I?ú?????????????ò???????×?????ó?????????ú?a量不×?5%?????????ó???§??????????ów????‘?不???????ó?°í‘???à·?????·??ú?a??更?????????C???????ü??????‘??????ó???r???????? (3) ?°?°?? ?????Y???????????Y??‘????????h?R???K·???áá?R???K?????F???ò??量度×????ù?????????L?U??????不?÷朗???ò???r??‘??“?????y??·??????????????????é例???@不???¨??利ì???????若???????ó量流???????????M?????????r??±????????????¤?Y?????????S?????????????????????M??力便????降???°í‘?ú???|???? (4) ???^?? ·??????Y?r?????Y?????ù“????????????ó·??ò?????÷??…^??狀?r×÷?????^·?????(1)Political ¨C?????????°í‘??(2)Economic ¨C???ò???ú??ów?????°í‘??(3)Social¨C?????–?}???°(4)Technological¨C?????? ?h?ò???ú°l?? 2007???h?ò???ú°l?????????à不?÷朗?ò????例????(1)?????????ú·?????樓??????????×?陸??(2) ??????·????_????“I?ê?^?{????力度 ??(3)??±??ü???????????ú數“?不理????(4)????é_????á??????°?????°·¨?????ú?D????(5)???????F?“利率???????????????°í‘??·??????????Y???????????°(6)?÷???ù?è???????”??不?ù??±?×o?÷?x?? ???d?????????c?C 金?u????°ü?¨°??÷???í羅??????度?°?????????Y??±?í????àêP??·????ü???????c?C????????????°??÷???ó?I???????????ê?^?{???ò???°í‘°??÷?????????????ì?????????W???ò???p???ò?í羅???????????????????ú·??????????ò???p??°?é_°l???????¤×÷???????C?????????C????×???????????路????度??·e?O°l???ù?¨???A???í羅?????????????Q易?M?—?????°°??÷???ì???Y????·??S???? ?h?ò???Y?°??????…^???Y ì?2006年????????了?ó?s15%???W??????????…R?r????了?ó?s12%???????W?????Y?????Yì?????????????????????15%???ó????…s“p?§?W??????????12%…R?r??·ù?????t????了3%???ò???????Y??‘????????H???°????‘]不????…^?????Y?C???? ·??????Y ???Y????°??????^?ù金??·??????Y?p???L?U?????????x“??ù金?r????留???ù金?ù???Y?????ò???Y?a?M?????°×???????êP???????J識???í???????????Y??兩??—l????(1)?rég?????_??°??????Y?C???°?rég???????M????(2)??ég??·???????????‘]?h?ò???Y?C???°不?????Y?¤???? ???¨來說?????Y????量力???é?????m?”?r?ò×??m?”?Q?¨?? ???Y???? ?v???????????¨?????ó?·?”????????欄×÷???? ??????‘????????±????更???Y±??÷?x??????×??ó???????????^?ù??年?????????±?????????A?????×20%???”??…s?×80%???ò???????Y?°±?í???‘]×??????L?U????“ú??力?????????¨???????”??理?”???????§?f不???^·?×??????p率×÷?????Y?Q?¨??更不???`???é?J??????±??¨??利???D???ò?p?????^?è?J×÷???Y?ù?§來???L?U?????????v??????·??í了?????????Y???????? ?¨????’????í???? ì?2006年???m?????ú??數????了34.2%????ì????§?àég???????????????r??????????337ég????????????725ég??“Q??????ì?2006年???Y???±?????_??·??????C?????F“p?§?????????ò±????é??·?°???????????????不?????¨°??????”??不·????r錄???“??éL??例×??? ?????????x“????m?????±?^?A?y?ó??×???更?é?????????Y??‘??“??‘]???e???r??·??????ò?????????°???^?h???????e???±???°í‘???v???¨×h???Y????’????í???????? ?¨????Value Averaging ?ù?^Value Averaging?????????à??金?~°??????????????±×÷éL?????Y???????????Y??不???`???é??Value Averaging??·???×÷???Y???L?U±??¨?????ò±??????C?^???????ú±í????藍?I??ì??^?ù??年??±í?F?????????Y?????x“??”??±í?F?^??????Value Averaging??·???×÷???Y???????ó率??±?不???y行?¨???????????ó率?????????Y???x“?了????±í?F????????????·???更??“p?§不·??? (3) ???Y?M?? ???Y??‘?????ì??M??????ów???ó?°?L?U???x“?????“í??良????利??éL??????率?????????????°°l???“力?????±???K???????????????a?L?U?????±???????????°????????ì????r?????ò?????r???à???_?L?U?? ?í?????m??·??????Y???ú?p???L?U???????????Y?M?????????±數????不?????à??????·??????Y???????e???±??·?????力?????Y??????‘]???¨｢??×??????????b???±｣?????????”?I?????b?????±?r??便????????“Q?????b???±?? (4)?ù±??ò?? ???Y??‘???????ég????????????理?r??????áá????ì???理?r?????r???I???“?????????±??便???í??Margin of Safety????°????…?H???v???@ég?????????r??金???????°í‘?????????????Y????不?????????ó???°í‘?? (5) ???ú?¤?? ????“ú?????±?r???????????Y???????????àêP???J?????à???????_?????L?U???????????Y??±?í??÷°×????????數???????s?????_???e??數??·??????L?U?K不???????ê???????_???????????v?????e??數??·????r??????????數?????????????? ??ì??F?r????????????·??¨??????度不×??????Y??±?í?×????L?U??理?????????????Y金?????÷?§???????K?x“????ü?{?°?°?????????±??????Sector Rotation????｢輪流??｣???F?ó???ò???????Y??±?í??????x“????±×÷???Y??éL?????????Y?a?r??不”à???????????”??不?ù???F?ó?????@…s?????????C?????Y??‘???‘]?????\???@???C?? ???Y???±?????????????????°??識???????????Y??±?í???‰ò???????????????r??±???理?????z?‘?ó??×?????×÷?L?U??理???????C???????@???????? ????????????????,???à?à?§?°????????×???·¨°? [ ±???×??ó?? yygyisme ?? 2007-9-30 23:29 ±à?? ]

	xuexixuexi

	???????¨?ò???÷?à?à?§?°

	?????????? ????