6 - 5 - 06 近阶段汇市行情提示

	从图面上看，美元指数最近一波向上的修正，基本上已经在5月26日运行完毕，重新恢复向下运行的波动。 不过，前期的单边走势，后市恐怕出现的机会很小。整体上，震荡下跌的可能性比较大。 即，价格不断出现新的低点，但是反弹也将不断进行，并且就比例来看，幅度不小。 下破了82。70/83。30区域，将下试 81。50/60区域。 操作上，并不存在多与空的绝对界限。 那欧元举例，下周，在 1。2900以下介入买盘， 1。2970以上介入沽空， 从宽设置止损，早晚，多少，都能看到盈利。 因此，资金和仓位的控制，显得更为重要些。 1。2700附近的价位，近期大概看不见了，下周能够看到1。2800附近上下的价位，买盘就应该自得其乐了。 英镑 在1。8550附近有一个小双低底部，颈线大致位于1。8870附近。  大约200点的空间。 向下修正， 1。8650附近是可能的承接价位区域； 向上突破， 则将向1。9050附近运行。 美元/日元， 前期震荡区域111。50 —— 113。00，在上周四，被打破了。 结果是，出现了破高看跌翻转形态，按该形态的指引，回撤111。50，也就成为了必然。 如同上方突破113。00以后，113。40是至关重要的阻力一样，下方下破111。50，如果不能进而下破111。00一线的支撑，还将向上出现较大幅度的反复。 在走向113。00附近价位的途中，一旦出现新的阻力价位，那么，后市下破111。00的倾向就非常大。 澳元， 拿一张周图画一画，看看修正的低点价位坐落在什么地方。 不难猜测和理解后市的波动倾向 加元， 长久，绵绵不断的上涨，吸引了很多聪明人的关注，都想介入捞一笔。 机会是存在，但是，要准备承受较大的风险。事先埋伏好。 毕竟这么长久的趋势，惯性不小。

	谢谢老师。 EUR会不会重复2003年6月中的这段顶部走势？

	谢谢分析

	谢谢老师

	谢谢指点！

	原帖由 fx123 于 2006-6-4 08:49 发表 谢谢老师。 EUR会不会重复2003年6月中的这段顶部走势？ 有心人.呵呵.会么?

	鲨老师辛苦了！

	原帖由 leilaowu 于 2006-6-4 16:13 发表 的确是个有心人，提供的图很好，我们应当提高警惕，常常观察图形的变化。 不能不说下跌的可能性是存在的 鲨版会回答这个问题吗? 也许周一结果便出.呵呵.

	QUOTE  1。2700附近的价位，近期大概看不见了，下周能够看到1。2800附近上下的价位，买盘就应该自得其乐了。 你是否也看了以下汇评? Gain Capital   The dollar’s fortunes this past week were avery closely tied to the Iranian nuclear standoff. Defiant comments from Teheran last weekend set the stage for dollar weakness at the beginning of the week. Then came the announcement mid-week that the US was prepared to participate in direct negotiations with Iran (based on the condition that Iran suspend all enrichment activities), which was seen as a potential diplomatic breakthrough and allowed the dollar to recover (along with Chicago PMI and FOMC minutes). The dollar’s recovery proved extremely short-lived as Iranian officials rejected the conditions set by the US and the dollar was on its way down again before the NFP report. Additional indications from Iranian government sources on Friday suggest that Iran will also reject the package of incentives proffered by the EU-3, US, Russia and China. This sets the stage for the matter to be returned to the UN Security Council in coming weeks where a resolution with economic and other sanctions is expected to be hammered out. All this is part of the diplomatic dance that appears to be headed to a stalemate and ultimately a military confrontation between the US and Iran.The eroding US economic outlook coupled with a rejection by Iran of diplomatic overtures forms a confluence of circumstances in which the US dollar is likely to come under significant new pressure. Additionally, economic data and events also look set to work against the US dollar next week. The ECB on Thursday is widely expected to hike rates ¼% and there may be some final speculation of a 50 b.p. hike in the run-up to the announcement. In the Madrid press conference, ECB pres. Trichet is likely to warn of additional rate increases (vigilance is the code) in July, assuming they hike only ¼% on Thursday, given strong recent inflation readings. Finally, the start of the World Cup next Friday seems likely to provide the EUR with a psychological-support that will serve as a sidelight to any EUR-rally. A test of the prior highs at 1.2970/75 is in the cards at a minimum, and if I’m correct a break over this level will spur fresh buying that will move the EUR comfortably above 1.3000. The major risk to this scenario is official verbal intervention and this is most likely to materialize on the sidelines of a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers that convenes on Tuesday evening GMT.US data next week is on the light side and begins on Monday with May ISM non-manufacturing, which is expected to drop from 63 to 60. Friday’s NFP report showed pronounced weakness in retail trade and consumer services and this suggest the ISM non-manufacturing could surprise to the downside. April consumer credit is out on Wednesday, followed by initial weekly claims on Thursday. The week’s data highlight will be Friday’s April US trade balance, which is forecast to widen to -$65.2 bio from -$62.0 bio and will serve to remind the market of the overhanging ‘twin deficits.In dollar index terms, the buck is closing the week just above 84.00 after making a brief low at 83.91, but well below last Friday’s 85.25 closing level. That we are closing the week near the lows is bearish on its face and the downside remains favored while below 84.50/60. If I am correct in my bearish outlook, we should not see much higher than the 84.30/40 area, roughly equivalent to 1.2840/50 level in EUR/USD. To the downside, the 84.00 level represents the lower end of a ‘bear flag’ consolidation pattern and the loss of this support signals the resumption of the down-trend. A daily close below 84.00 will trigger losses to the 83.60 low for the year seen on May 15 and then 83.30 support from 4/2005. Below that and there is little technical support evident until the 82.00/30 area.