Saxo Bank 外汇分析华语版（仅供观赏）

发表于 2004-8-16 09:45


	美元日元将进一步走高到112.50 - 113.00阻力；欧元日元现在锁定139.00目标。 Friday, August 13, 2004 7:01 AM GMT Saxo 银行现推出罗伯特的外汇分析华语版外汇分析华语版Saxo Bank 声明: 分析内容仅供参考，据此入市，风险自负。Saxo Bank 不对因译文错误，更新延迟及因此而产生的投资行为承担任何责任。 Forex Technicals: - EUR/USD - The common currency made a sharp move towards 1.2300 after the disaapointing July retail sales, but failed to sustain momentum and fell back to 1.2260 level. Nonetheless, this may be the partof a new uptrend. From a trading point of view, it still makes sense for a tactical long euro position, the risk being a fall below the 1.2200 base. No change in the short-term scenario -- look for 1.2200 support to hold. No change in the longer-term view as well -- the rally should resume from here, then take out 1.2320 top, which re-establishes the uptrend. The single currency should retest the 1.2500 top within the next week, or so. And further out, the 1.2925 major top is starting to become a tempting objective. - GBP/USD - the currency has been flat since European session, save a brief uptick to 1.8355. The currency pair finds support at 1.8250, triggering a call for tactical long GBP/USD positions be put in place, with the risk a fall below the 1.8250 base. No change in the short-term view -- support now expected at 1.8250. There's no change in longer-term view as well -- support should firm up soon, and the rally should then go on to 1.8500. A new upleg kicks off further out, which should challenge the 1.8800 top within the next couple of weeks. And beyond that, the 1.9140 major top beckons. - USD/JPY - minor support appeared at 110.50 -- the rally thereafter getting set to peak near 111.10 and resume the downtrend. There's no change in the longer-term view -- the downtrend should resume shortly, with the 109.40 the short-term objective, and 107.60 baseline as next primary target. - USD/CHF - the currency did peak at 1.2650 and should fall further towards the 1.2500 base There's no change in the main scenario nonetheless. The downtrend should reassert thereafter, break below the 1.2500 minor base, and should have the 1.2200 base as the new downside focus much further out. - USD/CAD -- the currency pair still probing the 1.3260 top -- no change in view. We still see this as a rally in a bear trend, and so the downtrend should resume soon. The currency should take out the 1.3080 trough, the ensuing sell-off should proceed towards the 1.3000 base thereafter. Eventually, the 1.2685 area becomes the next primary focus. - AUD/USD - currency has been to as high as .7180 after the retail sales data, but pulled back since then, support should show up at .7130. There's no change in major scenario -- the rally should continue from there, the next major focus being the .7370 area, then towards .7500 much further out. - NZD/USD - the currency given a lift by favorable interest rate outlook, and has gone above the .6566 top for a test of .6591. The uptrend should roll forward from here. The next barrier comes in at the .6630 area, but further out .7000 looms large as target. - EUR/JPY - the pullback went further than expected and has been to 135.20, but support did firm and was higehr since then. The upmove continues, takes out the 136.55 top, with the 139.00 area the next primary focus further out. - EUR/CHF - the cross consolidates, fell below 1.5400 -- that would be the test of the base -- no chaneg in the view. We still see a rally going forward. No change in the scenario -- the cross should take off anew thereafter, with 1.5500 - 1.5550 as the next focus. A New York close above 1.5450 anyday suggests that the major bear phase is over and should usher in a new major upcycle -- the immediate focus of which is the 1.5860 major top further out. - EUR/GBP - the uptrend did continue, and may reach .6785 area - .6800 before major resistance appears. Minor resistance may show up at .6740. - GBP/JPY - no change in view still -- the consolidation pattern may have transformed into a large triangle, which suggests that further downmoves are due, probably to 202.00 area. But the pattern is on its last stage, the view further out remains positive, and 208.00 is in the equation after the consolidation is over. - GBP/CHF - the currency is still making a classic basing action -- support probed for weakness. But we believe that the large corrective phase from the 2.3400 top is over, so support should hold. A new rally takes off from here, and then go on to retest the 2.3400 top. The cross should continue thereafter, and have a go at 2.3900 major target area. News, data, references and commentaries compiled from Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, CBSMarketWatch, Briefing.com, and Economy.com Euro/US Dollar (1.2191) - 06:40 GMT, Aug 13, 2004 欧元美元(EUR/USD)：受零售业数据影响，从1.2305探针下跌之后欧元又进一步跌穿了窄幅盘整区间。1.2200支持被跌穿——支持出现在了1.2170。短期观点不变——1.2150支持有望守住。长期观点也不变——升势应从这里重拾，接着突破1.2320顶部，从而再次确立升势。大约在未来几周里欧元应再次测试1.2500顶部。若进一步上涨，1.2925重要顶部也开始成为一个诱人的目标。 Recommendations: Long EUR position from 1.2038 was closed at 1.2176 stop-loss. Buy EUR at 1.2191. Stop-loss: 1.2110. Profit target: 1.2500. British Pound/US Dollar (1.8162) - 06:48 GMT, Aug 13, 2004 英镑美元（GBP/USD）：受通货膨胀报告的影响英镑继续走弱，一方面也是考虑到英格兰银行可能收紧银根。不过今天晚些时候1.8160的支持可能守住。缓慢的下跌还不至于给短期牛市观点以致命打击。长期观点也不变——支持强劲，此后升势应继续走高到1.8500。在下个月早期英镑有可能上扬挑战1.8800顶部，如果超过这个价位那么上看1.9140重要顶部。 Recommendations: Bought GBP at 1.8282 and 1.8282. Move stop-loss from 1.8150 to 1.8120. Keep profit target at 1.8800. US Dollar/Japanese Yen (111.86) - 06:49 GMT, Aug 13, 2004 美元日元（USD/JPY ）：111.10没有成为有效的尖点，因此下降趋势没有实现——由于这种不稳定的短期价格行为我们也开始不知所措。虽然如此，但是毕竟有可能达到112.50 - 113.00。不过长期观点不变——此后下降趋势应重拾，以109.40为短期目标，107.60底线为下次下跌的首要目标。 Recommendations: Stand aside. US Dollar/Swiss Franc (1.2617) - 06:49 GMT, Aug 13, 2004 美元瑞朗（USD/CHF）： 1.2650真的成为了尖点，然后进一步下跌到1.2500底部——偏向看多，窄幅整理，并可能回升到1.2620/25。不过主要观点不变。此后下降趋势应重拾，跌穿1.2500次级底部，并将以1.2200 底部作为进一步下跌的目标。 Recommendations: Sold USD at 1.2534. Move stop-loss from 1.2690 to 1.2720. Keep profit target at 1.2200. US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (1.3317) - 06:49 GMT, Aug 13, 2004 美元加元（USD/CAD ）：突破到1.3260顶部之上——这需要我们修改短期观点。在未来几天里，美汇加元可能会进一步走高到1.3425 - 1.3500。但我们也明白这是在熊市中的一波上升，因此下降趋势很快将重拾。美汇加元应跌穿1.3080底部，此后紧接着的下跌应进行到1.3000底部，最终我们需要见到1.2685的主要下跌目标。 Recommendations: Stand aside. Australian Dollar/US Dollar (0.7064) - 06:52 GMT, Aug 13, 2004 澳元美元（AUD/USD）：一度快速下跌，可能会在.7050附近找到支撑。主要观点不变——此后升势应继续，下一个首要目标在.7370区间，然后是 .7500。 Recommendations: Long AUD position from 0.7049 was closed at 0.7078 stop-loss. Stand aside. NZ Dollar/US Dollar (0.6533) - 06:53 GMT, Aug 13, 2004 纽元美元（NZD/USD）：纽元从.6593顶部下跌，但应在.6500 - .6480区间找到支持。此后升势应继续。下一个强阻力在.6630区间，但进一步的目标在.7000。 Recommendations: Bought NZD at 0.6303. Move stop-loss from 0.6470 to 0.6440. Keep profit target at 0.6800. Euro/Japanese Yen (136.37) - 06:55 GMT, Aug 13, 2004 欧元日元（EUR/JPY）：强劲的支撑应推动汇价走高到前期顶部136.50之上。此后升势应继续，下一个目标在139.00区间。 Recommendations: Bought EUR at 136.12. Keep stop-loss at 135.10. Keep profit target at 139.00. Euro/Swiss Franc (1.5376) - 06:56 GMT, Aug 13, 2004 欧元瑞朗（EUR/CHF）：巩固整理中，下跌到1.5400之下，可能在1.5360之上停止下跌——从而完成对底部的测试——观点不变。此后应展开新的上涨，以1.5500 - 1.5550作为下一个目标。不论哪天纽约收盘价在1.5450之上都表明主要的熊市形态已经结束，并应呈现出一波主升循环——接下来的主要目标在1.5860重要顶部。 Recommendations: Stand aside. Euro/British Pound (0.6706) - 06:57 GMT, Aug 13, 2004 欧元英镑（EUR/GBP）：升势真的继续，在重要阻力出现之前应很快到达.6785－.6800区间。次级阻力可能会出现在.6740。 Recommendations: Bought EUR at 0.6694. Move stop-loss from 0.6635 to 0.6670. Keep profit target at 0.6850. British Pound/Japanese Yen (203.28) - 06:58 GMT, Aug 13, 2004 英镑日元（GBP/JPY）：盘整形态真的转变为一个大的三角形，这表明此后的上涨开始了一波新的牛市行情，进一步的目标在208.00 - 210.00。 Recommendations: Long GBP position from 202.74 and 202.74 was closed at 202.07 stop-loss. Buy GBP at 203.28. Stop-loss: 201.80. Profit target: 208.00. British Pound/Swiss Franc (2.2912) - 07:00 GMT, Aug 13, 2004 英镑瑞朗（GBP/CHF）：筑底过程中再次滑落并一度下跌到2.2875。我们依然相信从2.3400顶部以来的大幅度调整形态已经结束，因此新的支持应守住。一波新的升势将从这里开始，然后再次测试2.3400顶部。此后升势应继续，以2.3900为首要上涨目标。 Recommendations: Bought GBP at 2.3043. Move stop-loss from 2.2870 to 2.2850. Keep profit target at 2.3900.