11/5货币分析

	Euro/US Dollar (1.1490) -  06:40 GMT, Nov 05, 2003         EUR/USD  had indeed extend to to just under 1.1511, but faded since then in Asian trading. However, there's a slight change in the minor view, which is dictated by the possibility of further weakness in the global equity markets over the next day or so -- the recovery could extend further to 1.1540/50 area later today.  But in the bigger picture, we keep the scenario intact:  the recent sell-off will probably extend further thereafter,  and the corrective decline may extend towards 1.1400, then to  1.1300 - 1.1250 area further out.     The current sell-off is apparently part of a bigger retracement pattern which will +correct+ the previous 1.0765 - 1.1859 bull phase.  Given the outlook in the stock and bond markets, U.S. assets would probably remain bid for another week or so, and this too should manifest in the currency markets -- major currencies would remain weak.  The single currency may fall further to 1.1400, hold the line temporarily -- not for very long --  and the Euro should yield further ground later in the week. We will now start focusing at 1.1300 - 1.250 as the objective for the entire downmove from the 1.1859 top. Recommendations: Stand aside. British Pound/US Dollar (1.6853) -  06:41 GMT, Nov 05, 2003    -  GBP/USD -   has  bounced back much higher than we thought, and may in fact extend gains further due to imminent rate hike by the BoE. The rally could extend to as high as 1.6920/30, which effectively terminates the bear trend, although we would expect a subsequent +test of the low+ seen at 1.6679 at some point after the current recovery.  In most respects, the current bear phase would hew to the same general corrective structure as that of the Euro's --  the sell-off to 1.65500 area +corrects+ the entire upmove from 1.6753 to 1.7075. The uptrend remains intact therefore, and we would be looking for levels to reinstate strategic long positions next week. Recommendations: Stand aside. US Dollar/Japanese Yen (109.59) -  06:49 GMT, Nov 05, 2003    USD/JPY -   sharp downmove has been to as low as 109.45, but may yet extend further down. make allowances for further decline to 109.20 - 109.10 --  but it should not change the general scenario. Given the outlook of further U.S. dollar strength, we may yet see another rally towards 112.00 thereafter. This rally is indeed a larger-degree upmove in a bear trend, but we still expect the primary downtrend to resume thereafter, and would be focused at 106.50 - 106.00 still much much further out. Recommendations: Long position (from 108.95) was closed at 109.54 stoploss. Stand aside. US Dollar/Swiss Franc (1.3611) -  06:54 GMT, Nov 05, 2003    USD/CHF  may yest retest the 1.3580 minor support area. But the upmove may not be over yet,  may extend further into 1.3800 area further out, and may resume after making another 1.3580 minor low. The dollar upmove may be exaggerated in this currency as the fear of a stock market sell-off recedes -- which usually hit the CHF the hardest. Look for EUR lead on the major scenario. Recommendations: Stand aside. US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (1.3284) -  06:56 GMT, Nov 05, 2003    -        USD/CAD   -   declined much lower than our modest 1.3340 downside target, and may even fall further to 1.3240 - 1.3220.   But the rally is probably not over yet, and the unit could ratchet back to 1.3350 - 1.3360 thereafter.  Technically, this upmove may still be  a bear market rally.  So allow for the full expression of a new rally, and only then would you look for strategic levels to sell on again. Recommendations: Stand aside. Australian Dollar/US Dollar (0.7094) -  07:02 GMT, Nov 05, 2003    -  AUD/USD  - indeed  recovered quickly and went beyond our modest .7025 target. It has been to .7120 so far. While it may retrace some of the large gains later in the week, say to .7050, the bear market is obviously over  and the upmove should now continue towards the previous .7200 target. Recommendations: Stand aside. NZ Dollar/US Dollar (0.6139) -  07:06 GMT, Nov 05, 2003    NZD/USD -   further extended gains to the .6170 level. A pullback to .6100 follows, but  very good support should develop at those levels.  Technicals and fundamentals remain excellent, and the currency should make another new highs for the cycle after this downside correction.  Keep long positions and move stoplosses a liittle lower. Strategic positions should be reinitiated shortly at circa .6100. Recommendations: Bought at 0.6126. Move stoploss from 0.6020 to 0.6090. Keep trading objective at 0.6260. Euro/Japanese Yen (125.98) -  07:10 GMT, Nov 05, 2003    -    EUR/JPY    -  the  small degree correction was followed by further declines to 125.73 -- a recovery back to 126.50 may develop from here. But any small bounce should not last long -- look for further decline to the 125.00 base further out. Recommendations: Stand aside. Euro/Swiss Franc (1.5648) -  07:13 GMT, Nov 05, 2003    -     EUR/CHF   has gone high as 1.5667 and may correct back to 1.5640/30 area. But the upside is well-established at this juncture, and the cross should nor procees towards the 1.5800 objective thereafter. Recommendations: Bought at 1.5473. Move stoploss from 1.5590 to 1.5610. Keep trading objective at 1.5800. Euro/British Pound (0.6813) -  07:16 GMT, Nov 05, 2003    -    EUR/GBP  -   a small recovery did make it to .6860, and seold off thereafter.  The bear phase is not over yet -- the cross  should extend the downmove further to .6800. Thereafter expect .6750 - .6730 area. Recommendations: Sold at 0.6841. Move stoploss from 0.6885 to 0.6865. Keep trading objective at 0.6730. British Pound/Japanese Yen (184.88) -  07:24 GMT, Nov 05, 2003    -     GBP/JPY  recovery may go back to 185.20 -- it may even extend to 185.40 -- but should resume the decline again  . .  make allwoances for further declines to 183.30 - 183.00 from there. The uptrend should resume thereafter however. Recommendations: Stand aside. British Pound/Swiss Franc (2.2967) -  07:26 GMT, Nov 05, 2003    -   GBP/CHF  remains well bid and has been to 2.3000. It may pullback some, but support should be seen above 2.2900. The rally should continue from there.  this currency pair on the path to 2.3500 and higher in the coming months. Recommendations: Stand aside.