为什么欧洲帮助打压美元

	帮助布什。（见下文下划线部分。有兴趣的汇友可读完全文。） Few benefit from low US dollar By John Hallows November 02, 2003 A MARVELLOUS conspiracy theory surfaced in London a few days ago, with the claim that European governments are actively plotting to bring down the US dollar as a way to bring George W. Bush to heel. A serious fall in the dollar would weaken the US economy and so reduce Washington's capacity for unilateral action. No more Iraqs, according to the theory, if the US can't afford them. The conservative Spectator magazine, which is no stranger to cracked ideas, first gave the notion a run. The theory is so dotty it's delicious. The last thing Europe's leaders would want is a faltering American economy - they sell so much stuff there. Unfortunately for investors trying to plan for 2004, there is a small but real chance that this scenario could be created anyway, for quite different reasons. If the US currency loses stability - and, despite what Treasury Secretary John Snow says publicly, there's not much doubt a lower dollar suits current Washington policy - it might make sense for OPEC to nominate the price of oil in euros rather than dollars. Should that happen, the euro would effectively become the world's reserve currency, in place of the US dollar. And in that event, there would be no reason for Japanese and other foreign investors to keep subsidising America's massive deficit by investing in US assets. They would be safer buying euro assets. That would be fine for the Europeans, but it would nudge the US economy into serious trouble. These dire events may well not happen, but the very possibility helps emphasise the problems of trying to devise an investment strategy in a world of shifting currency valuations. Four days ago we discovered that this year's hike in the Australian dollar and South African rand sliced almost 10 per cent off BHP Billiton's first-quarter profits. With our dollar headed towards 72 US cents, and probably higher, that's a painful problem that will shared by all Australian exporters this financial year. But it's not just the exporting companies that are affected. This year the industry superannuation funds have performed markedly better than the retail super funds. The leading industry funds made a good investment decision to move back into international shares long before the commercial managers were prepared to. When the overseas markets came back to life after March, the industry funds reaped the benefit. It's to be hoped they cashed in the gains promptly. Any gains they made on American markets this year will have been entirely wiped out by the surging Aussie dollar.