3.17每日汇市： 利率维稳释放鹰派信号 英镑刷新2周高位

	英国央行(BoE)昨日公布的决议显示，该央行9人货币政策委员会(MPC)以1-8-0(加息-不变-降息)的票数决定将基准利率维持在0.25%；并以9-0(不扩大-扩大)决定将资产购买规模维持在4350亿英镑；维持公司债购买规模为100亿英镑不变。英国央行表示，未来3年“以温和的方式撤出”刺激措施是合适的，部分MPC委员看到有可能需要更早加息；在此次利率决议中，福布斯支持加息25个基点，而MPC成员对GDP强度信心存在差别。英国央行指出，调查几乎没有显示经济增速放缓，但围绕未来贸易协定的不确定性对经济增长构成下行风险。通胀预期维持不变，薪资疲软，但MPC委员福布斯则感觉国内因素导致的通胀明显上升，福布斯称容忍CPI高于目标的理由有所减弱。 　　另外，欧洲央行管委诺沃特尼昨日表示，欧洲央行可能以不同于美联储的方式摆脱宽松货币政策，存款利率可以在主要基准利率之前上调。诺沃特尼指出，美国模式是首先结束债券购买，但这种模式转到欧洲来可能不会运行良好；所有利率不必同时上调，上调幅度也不必一样。此前欧洲央行执委普雷特称，通胀动力尚未能自我维持，还没有看到经济复苏走强转变为持续加强的通胀动力。普雷特表示，欧元区经济增长前景面临的风险已经减缓，不过鉴于全球因素，风险依然倾向于下行；尽管如此，如今的经济前景要比那么多年来都要好。 　　今日需要关注的数据有，意大利1月贸易帐、欧元区1月季调后贸易帐、美国2月工业产出月率、美国2月谘商会领先指标月率、美国3月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值和美国2月就业市场状况指数LMCI。 　　美元指数 　　美元指数昨日震荡下行，刷新5周低位，现汇价交投于100.20附近。不及预期鹰派的美联储会议纪要影响持续发酵是施压美元指数持续下滑的主要原因。此外，荷兰大选落下帷幕，欧元区政治忧虑缓解也对汇价构成了一定的打压。时段内美国公布的经济数据好坏参半，对市场的影响有限。今日关注100.80附近的压力情况，下方支撑在99.80附近。 　　欧元/美元 　　欧元昨日震荡上行，刷新5周高位，现汇价交投于1.0770附近。除偏向鸽派的美联储决议影响发酵对汇价构成了有力的支撑外，荷兰大选落下帷幕，欧元区政治忧虑降温和欧洲央行官员发表的鹰派言论也是支撑欧元走高的重要因素。欧洲央行管委诺沃特尼表示，欧洲央行可能以不同于美联储的方式摆脱宽松货币政策。今日关注1.0850附近的压力情况，下方支撑在1.0700附近。 　　英镑/美元 　　英镑昨日震荡上行，接近1.2400关口并刷新2周高位，现汇价交投于1.2350附近。除美元指数在鸽派美联储会议纪要的影响下走软对汇价构成了有力的支撑外，英国央行利率维稳并意外释放出鹰派的信号也是支撑英镑走高的重要因素。英国央行表示，一位决策者意外投票赞同本周升息，英国央行还称部分委员看到有可能需要更早加息。今日关注1.2450附近的压力情况，下方支撑子啊1.2250附近。

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