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	-   EUR/USD  extended Friday's weakness and never did bounce high  enough to reach 1.1360 levels. The probe of the 1.1260 low looks very tentative however, so we might see another uptick to 1.1340, that is if we are lucky. But the bear market rally may not last long -- the currency will probably fall again from those higher levels and should make it to the 1.1100 - 1.1000 support area later in the week.    GBP/USD  never made it to 1.6420 - 1.6430, after meeting resistance at 1.6380 area on Friday. However, the decline seems to be lacking conviction early on and may cause another small uptick to 1.5380 - 1.6400.  Nonetheless, this currency pair uptick may eventually turn out to be another selling opportunity, looking for a decline towards 1.6200 - 1.6100 further out.   -    USD/JPY  fell to as low as 117.60 but we doubt if it has met the requirements of the sell-off, contrary to what we indicated on Friday. We may yet see another dip back to 117.40. Further sell-off should finally complete the downmove.  But this is probably as far as the currency will fall  -- prospects of firmer greenbacks will be greatly improved next week due to correspondingly better tone in the equity markets. The next upmove may be targeted at  121.00 - 122.00.   USD/CHF   hit resistance levels, and may pull back somewhat to the 1.3700 area. But the uptrend has very probably resumed, and may see upside accelaration later in the week.  The next upmove will probably focus on at least 1.3950, perhaps even at the major resistance at 1.4100. -    USD/CAD  is making a small retracement back to 1.3740 area, but nothing has changed -- allow for further upmove to 1.3950 - 1.3975 thereafter.  Expect a small correction back to 1.3800 next, but by and large, a rally to 1.4000 - 1.4100 is in the making.      AUD/USD   is pulling back somewhat  but may find support at .6550/40 area.  But there may be one more extended sell-off left in the series -- allow for further decline to 6420 - .6400 after the next uptick. Further out, the longer-term outlook still applies:  the main uptrend should resume thereafter and may target the .7200 - .7400 in the next major upcycle.     NZD/USD  did extend to .5950/60, but should probe the lower area of .5850 next.   A new upmove should develop thereafter which targets initially the .6020 top, then a new bull phase to .6300 - even 6500. -     EUR/JPY   is having further declines to 131.00 area. The corrective phase from the 1.4090 top should end there -- a new bull phase takes off next week, targeted at 1.4500 next.  EUR/CHF  may also pull back lower and could see at 1.5460/50 area again. A new upcycle is in the formative stage. But by and large, the next upmove may focus at 1.5800. Look up the individual currencies for more details and specific trading recommendations.  Refer also to the Daily Equity Strategy web page for latest FX and equity updates during the New York trading session. Stock Markets:   (July 14, 2003,  Asian Trading  1130 EST,   0530 CET )    -   Friday's rally was led by influential sectors such as biotech, financial, drug, paper, retail, and computerhardware. For most of the session, the only laggards of note were disk drive and airline sectors. Towards the close, when some investors took profit, the semiconductor, networking, and tobacco sectors fell into the loss column.  The market regained its legs in the last hour and closed the session up 0.9-1.1% and with gains of 0.5%, 1.3%, and 4.2% for the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq, respectively.  Closing levels:   Dow +83.55 at 9119.59, Nasdaq +18.04 at 1733.90, S&P +9.43 at 998.13. -  SPX found support right at the opening then made it to the 1000 level before mid-day -- we did not see a prior 978 - 975 downmove before the uptrend reasserted. The market is more powerful than we thought, and so readjust the timing of a new rally. A new break of SPX 1010 level suggests that the index may be finally heading for 1050 - 1070 .  This should complete the entire sequence from the 789 low seen on March 12 -- and perhaps a huge FOURTH WAVE since the 768 low in 10 October last year. We would expect a 50 percent correction of the March move (focusing at 915 - 900), and further out we see a fall to new low, possibly 700 SPX in Sept-October time frame next year. -   European bourses were much higher on Friday. The DAX may test the 3375 area, up from 3245 low Friday. The FTSE 100 should move back to 4090 resistance. And the CAC 40 may also deliver a surprise and go all the way to 3195 and will be followed by a rally to new highs for the year.   The rally resumes thereafter and may see DAX rise up to 3650, CAC 40 to 3400, and FTSE 100 to 4350 by month end.   FX News Background:   ( July 14, 2003,  Asian Trading  1130 EST,   0530 CET ) -  The dollar may gain for a fourth week in five against the euro as signs of faster economic growth draw investors to U.S. assets, a Bloomberg News survey showed.  For the second consecutive week, a majority of traders, analysts and investors surveyed from Tokyo to New York on Friday recommended buying the dollar in coming days against the euro. The poll of 35 people came before statistics this week that are forecast to show gains in retail sales and manufacturing.  The U.S. currency rose 1.7 percent last week to $1.1298 in New York trading at 5 p.m. Friday, for its strongest weekly close in 10 weeks. It also gained against 11 other of the world's most frequently traded currencies, posting its best week in almost a year against the Australian dollar. -   Canada's dollar had its biggest weekly drop in a year as some traders bet the country's economy will be outpaced by the U.S. in the next six months, diminishing the allure of the country's currency and debt securities.  Investors piled into the U.S. dollar, sending it up 2.6 percent against Canada's currency this week. Some of the Canadian dollar's drop was pared on Friday after a government report showed the economy unexpectedly added jobs last month, quelling speculation the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates Tuesday to stimulate the economy. -   The British pound had its worst week against the dollar in 11 months after an interest rate cut by the Bank of England reduced investors' returns on assets denominated in the currency.  The pound was at $1.6307 by 3:50 p.m. in London from $1.6326 late Thursday. It has shed 1.9 percent against the U.S. currency so far this week, its largest fall since the five days ending Aug. 9. Yesterday it traded at its weakest versus the dollar since May 16. Against the euro, it was at 69.26 pence from 69.75. -   Japanese stocks gained for the first day in three. Computer-related companies such as Tokyo Electron Ltd. rose after two brokerages forecast increased demand for products of Intel Corp. and Dell Computer Corp.  The Topix index climbed 4.10, or 0.4 percent, to 949.88, with computer-related shares contributing a third of the index's gain. Bank of England policy makers on Thursday cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.5 percent, its lowest in 48 years, to help spur growth in Europe's second-biggest economy. Euro/US Dollar - July 14 EUR/USD -  (1.1280)    0119 EST;  0719  CET -   EUR/USD  extended Friday's weakness and never did bounce high  enough to reach 1.1360 levels. The probe of the 1.1260 low looks very tentative however, so we might see another uptick to 1.1340, that is if we are lucky. But the bear market rally may not last long -- the currency will probably fall again from those higher levels and should make it to the 1.1100 - 1.1000 support area later in the week.      Sell again at 1.1350.   Initial stoploss: 1.1460. Trading objective:  1.1050. British Pound/US Dollar - July 14 GBP/USD -  (1.6281)    0126 EST; 0726  CET   -     GBP/USD  never made it to 1.6420 - 1.6430, after meeting resistance at 1.6380 area on Friday. However, the decline seems to be lacking conviction early on and may cause another small uptick to 1.5380 - 1.6400.  Nonetheless, this currency pair uptick may eventually turn out to be another selling opportunity, looking for a decline towards 1.6200 - 1.6100 further out.   Sell again at 1.6350. Initial stoploss: 1.6470.  Trading objective: 1.6100. Euro/Japanese Yen - July 14 EUR/JPY -  (132.64)   0157  EST;   0757  CET -    EUR/JPY   is having further declines to 131.00 - 130.00. The corrective phase from the 1.4090 top should end there -- a new bull phase takes off next week, targeted at 1.4500 next.   Hold short position (133.52). Move stoploss from 134.65 to 133.55. Trading objective: 130.50.

	why are you so pessimistic, i think there is a possibility of rebounce.

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