游枷利叶
发表于 2012-11-2 18:21
1.2880破了 进了点空
ctxxdd 发表于 2012-11-2 17:31 http://www.y2.cn/images/common/back.gif
未到非农我都不太想动!
JAN
发表于 2012-11-2 18:38
回复 1# 游枷利叶
:vic:
redstephen
发表于 2012-11-2 19:16
謝校長,希望看到完美的W圖型{:1_97:}
游枷利叶
发表于 2012-11-2 20:17
美国10月非农就业报告前瞻
美国 经济 2012年11月02日 16:54 文 / H.Lin
北京时间周五20:30,美国劳工部即将发布大选前最后一份非农就业报告。
经济学家们说,由于担忧经济增长受到“财政悬崖”冲击,美国雇主们可能不愿大力雇佣新员工,因此10月失业率或出现上升。
彭博社调查中值显示,10月美国失业率料从7.8%升至7.9%,为三个月内首次上升。同时,继9月非农就业增加11.4万人过后,10月料再增加12.5万人。
在刚刚过去的第三季度,美国平均每月增加非农就业人数14.6万。
调查还显示,10月除政府部门之外的私营部门就业岗位料增加12.3万个;9月为增加10.4万个。
非农报告的政治意义
就业报告的好坏将影响部分选民的投票决定。奥巴马当局说,美国已连续24个月出现就业增长,这表明经济改善。罗姆尼阵营则指责就业改善速度过慢。近期的多数民调显示,奥巴马和罗姆尼的支持率不相上下。
在9月失业率意外跌至奥巴马2009年1月入主白宫以来最低水平之后,前GE CEO杰克·韦尔奇(Jack Welch)质疑奥巴马为了政治利益而操纵数据。对此,美国白宫经济顾问委员会主席Alan Krueger指责韦尔奇的言论是不负责任的。
在9月失业率跌至7.8%之前,失业率已连续43个月高于8%。
自从二战以来,里根总统是唯一在失业率超过6%的情况下仍获得连任的总统。在1984年总统选举之时,美国失业率为7.2%,但其已在过去18个月里下跌约3个百分点。
假设10月美国失业率为7.9%,那么在过去18个月里,美国失业率下跌了1.1个百分点。
近期数据显示美国民众信心增强
不论谁能顺利当选总统,至少从近期的数据来看,美国民众对经济已变得越来越乐观,这说明劳动市场可能也正在改善。
9月美国家庭支出增幅为7个月最大,10月的汤森路透/密歇根大学消费者信心指数也升至5年高位,昨天刚刚发布的10月谘商会消费者信心指数也为自2008年2月以来最高。
而另一方面,美国企业则对全球经济疲软和美国“财政悬崖”感到更加担忧。商务部10月26日发布的第三季度GDP报告显示,企业的结构和设备支出的非居民固定投资三季度下跌了1.3%,二季度为增长3.6%。
各机构给出的预测
================================================================
非农私营部门 制造业 失业率
(单位:千人) (%)
================================================================
中值 125 123 -4 7.9%
平均值 122 123 -3 7.9%
最高预期 154 157 10 8.0%
最低预期 30 74 -15 7.7%
参与调查机构数量 91 51 24 88
9月数值 114 104 -16 7.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------
4CAST 145 150 --- 7.9%
ABN Amro (荷兰银行) 130 130 --- 8.0%
Action Economics 120 125 -5 7.9%
Aletti Gestielle 120 --- --- ---
Ameriprise Financial 115 110 -10 7.9%
Banca Aletti 125 140 -2 7.8%
Bank of the West 122 125 -10 7.8%
三菱东京日联银行 130 140 --- 7.8%
Banorte-IXE 125 --- --- 8.0%
Bantleon Bank AG 125 --- --- 7.9%
巴克莱 125 130 --- 7.8%
Bayerische Landesbank 124 --- --- 7.9%
BBVA 125 130 -6 7.9%
BMO Capital Markets 130 --- --- 7.9%
法国巴黎银行 125 120 --- 7.9%
美银-美林 90 100 --- 7.9%
Briefing.com 135 145 --- 7.9%
Capital Economics 125 --- --- 7.8%
CIBC World Markets 136 --- --- 7.9%
花旗 120 --- --- 7.9%
ClearView Economics 120 120 -10 7.9%
Comerica 120 --- --- 7.8%
德国商业银行 140 140 --- 7.9%
东方汇理银行 130 --- --- 7.9%
瑞信 125 125 --- 7.9%
CTI Capital 131 --- --- ---
大和证券美国 125 --- --- 7.9%
丹斯克银行 125 123 --- 7.9%
DekaBank 100 --- --- 7.9%
Desjardins Group 140 --- --- 8.0%
德意志银行证券 125 125 --- 7.9%
德国邮政银行 130 --- --- 7.9%
Exane 140 --- --- 7.9%
First Trust Advisors 120 120 -5 7.8%
FTN Financial 125 115 --- 7.8%
高盛 125 --- --- 7.9%
Hammer Partners 120 --- --- 7.8%
Helaba 125 --- --- 7.9%
High Frequency Economics 100 --- --- 7.9%
汇丰 125 120 8 7.9%
Hugh Johnson Advisors 84 74 0 7.9%
IDEAglobal 135 130 10 7.8%
IHS Global Insight 125 --- --- 7.9%
Informa Global Markets 125 --- -10 8.0%
ING Financial Markets 140 140 -10 7.9%
Insight Economics 135 --- --- 7.8%
Intesa Sanpaulo 110 --- --- 7.9%
摩根大通 135 140 -5 7.8%
Janney Montgomery Scott 94 104 0 8.0%
Jefferies & Co. 110 115 2 7.9%
John Hancock Financial 154 --- --- 7.9%
Landesbank Berlin 100 --- --- 8.0%
Landesbank BW 100 --- --- 7.9%
Lloyds Bank 95 100 --- 7.9%
Maria Fiorini Ramirez 120 125 --- ---
Market Securities 140 --- --- 7.8%
MET Capital Advisors 102 --- --- 7.9%
Modal Asset --- 123 --- ---
穆迪分析 135 150 -15 7.9%
摩根士丹利 130 130 --- 7.9%
National Bank Financial 110 --- --- 7.9%
Natixis 125 --- --- 7.8%
野村证券 145 130 3 7.7%
Nord/LB 110 --- -5 7.8%
OSK Group/DMG 130 --- --- 7.9%
Oxford Economics 106 100 7 7.9%
Paragon Research 140 --- --- 7.9%
Pierpont Securities 105 90 --- 7.9%
PineBridge Investments 125 --- --- 7.9%
PNC Bank 150 --- 10 7.9%
Prestige Economics 145 135 --- 7.9%
Raiffeisenbank International 145 150 --- 7.8%
Raymond James 125 120 --- 7.8%
加拿大皇家银行资本市场 120 115 --- 7.9%
苏格兰皇家银行证券 125 120 --- 7.9%
Regions Financial 124 116 -6 8.0%
Renaissance Macro Research 100 105 --- 7.9%
Scotiabank 100 --- --- 7.9%
SISR 153 157 --- 7.9%
SMBC Nikko Securities 150 130 --- 7.8%
法国兴业银行 90 90 --- 7.7%
Southern Polytechnic State 120 120 --- 7.9%
渣打银行 147 152 --- 7.9%
Stone & McCarthy 115 110 0 7.8%
道明证券 115 115 0 7.9%
瑞银 120 125 --- 7.9%
UniCredit Research 140 --- --- 7.9%
Union Investment 115 --- --- 8.0%
University of Maryland 113 118 -3 7.9%
富国银行. 96 --- --- 7.8%
西太平洋银行 30 --- --- 8.0%
Wrightson ICAP 120 120 --- 7.8%
================================================================
ecatia
发表于 2012-11-2 20:20
Non-farm payrolls preview: By the numbers
By Adam Button|| November 1, 2012 at 17:52 GMT
|| 6 comments || Add comment
Here are some of the numbers to consider ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. Release time is 8:30 am ET.
Median estimate 125K (125K private as well)
Sept reading: 114K
High est 168K
Low est 30K
NFP 6-month avg 106K
Unemployment rate est. at 7.9% vs 7.8% prior
ADP 125K vs 114K prior (135K exp)
ISM manufacturing employment 52.1 vs 54.7 prior
ISM non-manufacturing employment: to be released Nov 5
Challenger job cuts 48K vs 34K in Sept, five month high
TrimTabs estimate based withheld income and employment taxes 140K
Monster Oct employment index: to be released Nov 2
Consumer Confidence jobs-hard-to-get: 39.4 vs 40.7 prior
Philly Fed employment: -10.7 vs -7.3 prior
Chicago PMI employment: 50.3 vs 52.0 prior
Initial jobless claims 4-wk moving avg: 367K vs 375K at the time of the Sept jobs report
Conference Board’s Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index: -77.8K to 4736K
Aug JOLTS job openings: 3561 vs 3735 exp
My favorite pre-NFP indicator is the employment component of the ISM non-manufacturing index. Unfortunately, this month it won’t be released until Monday.
One thing that might point to a better number is the 342K reading in initial jobless claims in early October. Although it seems to have been a bureaucratic error, the low number came during non-farm payrolls survey week.
If you want to make your prediction, you can win a ForexLive.com t shirt. if you want my prediction: the political spinsters will earning their salaries tomorrow.
tangsy
发表于 2012-11-2 20:20
回复 1# 游枷利叶
谢谢校长指教。
edilson
发表于 2012-11-2 20:34
美国10月非农就业人数变化∶17.1万前值∶11.4万预估值∶12.5万
笑会飞
发表于 2012-11-2 20:37
r日元真到80.60了
难道中日真的肯定要开战了吗?
校长,你怎么看:)
zuaqian
发表于 2012-11-2 20:38
回复 27# edilson
对非美影响?
edilson
发表于 2012-11-2 20:40
我想数据利好美元的。