不跌破58，我看多:D
若NZDJPY 8H 实质性跌破 59.5附近那条线，就大胆空吧。
下面先看57，再看55.:vic::D
update 一下。:vic:
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（ZT）
New Zealand Dollar Forecast Remains Bearish Despite NZX Bounce
Fundamental Outlook for New Zealand Dollar: Bearish
- New Zealand Dollar tumbles as Fitch downgrades credit rating outlook
- RBNZ Governor claims New Zealand economy to recover ahead of pack
- Retail Sales jump by most in 12 years
The highly risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar finished the week broadly higher against major trading counterparts, but a relative unease across global equity markets underlines risks to the high-yielding currency. The US S&P 500 rallied to its highest levels in overa month and took the New Zealand dollar with it. Yet we have argued and continue to believe that risky assets could see a sustained turn lower through the end of the year’s trade. A noteworthy run of New Zealand economic data bolstered outlook for the domestic economy, but a surprise credit rating outlook downgrade offset renewed optimism for growth. Given countervailing market forces, short-term forecasts for the New Zealand dollar are far from clear. Yet we believe that risks remain to the downside and continue to call for a sustained pullback in the highly risk-sensitive currency.
Limited global economic event risk suggests that volatility will be limited in the week ahead, but it remains critical to monitor the general trajectory of equity indices and broader risk barometers. New Zealand’s own NZX 50 index is up just over 3.5 percent on a year-to-date basis—not bad by historical standards. More importantly however, the index remains a massive 35 percent off of the highs seen in late 2007. There are two distinct ways to look at NZX declines: domestic equities are now either incredibly undervalued or overall momentum favors continued financial and economic malaise. We obviously can’t know the answer for sure, but we would argue that sizeable economic headwinds may limit further equity market rallies through the foreseeable future.
Otherwise it will be important to watch developments as far as New Zealand’s credit rating is concerned. The small Asia-Pacific economy remains dependent on foreign demand for its debt, as the lure of high interest rates led investors to finance much of New Zealand’s economic activity through recent years. Credit rating agency Fitch highlighted risks to said dependence and surprised many by downgrading its outlook for New Zealand’s long-term credit rating to ‘negative’—the first step in lowering the rating itself. Any such action would clearly be detrimental to the New Zealand dollar, and FX traders should keep a close lookout for news surrounding debt ratings.
不跌破58，我看多:D
回眸笑步生 发表于 2009-7-5 19:19 http://y2.cn/images/common/back.gif;)