鲨版老师好。。
最近的行情真是长见识。记得二年前.欧元也在1.24-25徘徊。鲨版老师指出是底部。果然以后欧元一路上升到1.6..现在欧欧又回到解放前啦。。。还会是底吗？回复 32楼 的帖子
It's very complicated question.But could contribute most to excessively aggressive approch of the US world strategy since 9.11 of 2001.
Currently, Change of currencey ratio is dominant by intence of market risk. Excessively aggressive approch of the US world strategy here means, in short , excessive expanssion of power and interest.
Besides of every thing, it needs money to do so. For the reason, dollar depreciation was necessary.
You have seen the consequence of dollar depreciation from every field.
[ 本帖最后由 sharkeater 于 2008-10-24 23:17 编辑 ] Skyrocketing price of commercial goods, like oil, metals and grains(corn, wheal, rice, and bean, etc), almost everything of raw materials, as well as precial metals, like gold and platinum, is one of examples.
[ 本帖最后由 sharkeater 于 2008-10-24 23:10 编辑 ] So was the speculative activities, borrow (equal to sell, here)JPY and US Dollar, currencies with lower interests (lower or least cost), to buy everything.
Now, under pressure of turmoil finacial situations (risk) , it is time to pay back. By the end of process selling commercial goods, gold, stocks, etc, how much of gain (comparing to prices in 2001) in %, will leave,
roughly, gain in % of other currencies (except of JPY and US Dollar) will be likely left. Therefore, It should not be supprise If Euro/Dollar back to below 1.0. Currently, 1.2450 -- 1.2500 region could be a possible bottom.
However,if 1.2450 --- 1.2500 broken, 1.1640, the low of 2005, is likely to be tested soon.
[ 本帖最后由 sharkeater 于 2008-10-24 23:13 编辑 ]